8402 Dusty Ridge Rd · Cove, TX 77523

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 8,232 sqft lot $165/sqft · 6% below area Est $244k · 6% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN READY! Refrigerator, WasherDryer Included! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in Cove, Texas. This charming 4-year-old property features an airy open concept layout with a generous family room, kitchen, and dining area. Interior New Paint (2026) and Professionally cleaned, it also includes a digital thermostat. Nestled in the desirable Barbers Hill ISD, this home offers quick access to major highways like I-10, FM 1409, SH 99, and Hwy 146. Residents can take advantage of community perks such as a park, playground, and picnic gazebo. With its low tax rate, proximity to shopping and dining options, this residence promises both comfort and convenience. Make this inviting abode yours today!

Key facts

• Digital thermostat
• Open concept layout
• 8,232 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DIGITAL THERMOSTAT
• QUICK ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-522/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,424 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,011
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -6.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5739 Rainbow Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-1%)	1mo	$215,000	$156	88
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-4%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	80
5831 Littoral Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-4%)	7mo	$233,900	$175	80
5523 Rainbow Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	9mo	$243,900	$175	78
6011 Treasure Cove Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	11mo	$257,000	$185	78
5818 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+2%)	13mo	$255,000	$180	78
5614 Rainbow Rd	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+1%)	12mo	$233,000	$166	74
5715 Treasure Cove Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+1%)	13mo	$237,500	$169	73
6022 Treasure Cove Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-4%)	9mo	$239,900	$180	71
5838 Golden Cove Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+1%)	10mo	$220,000	$157	71
6023 Treasure Cove Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-4%)	12mo	$235,000	$176	70
14503 Sweet Water Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+9%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,960
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,700
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,701/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $221,319

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	19d	1	0.11mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	24d	1	0.49mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	21d	1	0.65mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	0.73mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	2d	1	0.92mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	17d	1	0.92mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	0.93mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	2d	1	0.98mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	15d	1	0.98mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Pending 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Pending 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $229,000 Pending 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   price $229,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-04-16
    listed $240,000 Active 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! Refrigerator, WasherDryer Included! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in Cove, Texas. This charming 4-year-old property features an airy open concept layout with a generous family room, kitchen, and dining area. Interior New Paint (2026) and Professionally cleaned, it also includes a digital thermostat. Nestled in the desirable Barbers Hill ISD, this home offers quick access to major highways like I-10, FM 1409, SH 99, and Hwy 146. Residents can take advantage of community perks such as a park, playground, and picnic gazebo. With its low tax rate, proximity to shopping and dining options, this residence promises both comfort and convenience. Make this inviting abode yours today!

13. 2025-03-19
    historical $1,950
14. 2025-03-12
    listed $1,950
15. 2024-04-25
    historical $1,750
16. 2024-04-18
    listed $1,750
17. 2021-05-05
    soldstatus Sold 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    The open living room, kitchen and dining room of this popular 3-bedroom, 2-bath home create an inviting space for get-togethers. The spacious dining room is set apart with eye-catching archways. The upgraded kitchen features a full suite of Whirlpool® appliances, granite countertops and an extra-deep, single-basin sink. The private owner’s suite includes a huge bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the Wi-Fi garage door opener, front yard landscaping and a fenced back yard included with this home.

18. 2021-02-26
    status Pending 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    The open living room, kitchen and dining room of this popular 3-bedroom, 2-bath home create an inviting space for get-togethers. The spacious dining room is set apart with eye-catching archways. The upgraded kitchen features a full suite of Whirlpool® appliances, granite countertops and an extra-deep, single-basin sink. The private owner’s suite includes a huge bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the Wi-Fi garage door opener, front yard landscaping and a fenced back yard included with this home.

19. 2021-02-26
    listed $208,900 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    The open living room, kitchen and dining room of this popular 3-bedroom, 2-bath home create an inviting space for get-togethers. The spacious dining room is set apart with eye-catching archways. The upgraded kitchen features a full suite of Whirlpool® appliances, granite countertops and an extra-deep, single-basin sink. The private owner’s suite includes a huge bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the Wi-Fi garage door opener, front yard landscaping and a fenced back yard included with this home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,701 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,701
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Cove, Texas is in good condition with recent updates, including new paint and a digital thermostat. It is move-in ready and offers a good return on investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls — Painting the interior walls can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it look more inviting to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Upgrade the kitchen and bathrooms — Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value by making it more modern and functional for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the interior walls — Painting the interior walls can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it look more inviting to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Upgrade the kitchen and bathrooms — Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value by making it more modern and functional for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Rental Removed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-26 Listed $208,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+59.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,701 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.