1582 Folsom St · San Francisco, CA 94103

$3,130,000

None bd · None ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 97 Days on market

Built 1916 Good condition 3,397 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to acquire a historic corner mixed-use apartment building in the heart of San Francisco's resurgent South of Market neighborhood. The property consists of 10 residential units6 one-bedrooms and 4 studiospositioned above a large 3,300-square-foot bar and restaurant space, for a total of 9,300 square feet. Home to the original Hamburger Mary's, the building occupies an iconic place in San Francisco history and helped shape the city's vibrant nightlife and LGBTQ+ entertainment scene. With the ground-floor retail lease expiring next year, the property offers a compelling opportunity for an owner-user or investor to reimagine this highly visible commercial space with prominent frontage along Folsom and 12th Streets. Most residential units have been renovated with updated kitchens and bathrooms. Low operating expenses and substantial banked rentsif implementedindicate a GRM of 9.54 and a cap rate of 6.85%. Additional capital improvements include a completed seismic retrofit and fire alarm system upgrade.

Key facts

• Strong tenant demand
• 3,397 sq ft lot
• Built 1916

Tags

• LARGE BAR AND RESTAURANT SPACE
• STRONG TENANT DEMAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $3.13M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51k ($612k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($92k rent vs $3.13M).
• Recommended offer: $2.85M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.8% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.5%/yr); 113 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $91,893/mo this rent would consume 947% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 2666% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $177k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $155k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $876k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$284k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.85M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $2,848,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.78%
• DSCR: 4.10
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,302,574
• List price: $3,130,000
• Delta: 140.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Dore St	0.31mi	7/3.0	4,834	4mo	$1,228,000	$254	70
100-110 Shotwell St	0.32mi	22/—	6,342	5mo	$2,400,000	$378	68
723 Minna St	0.39mi	6/—	2,424	5mo	$1,160,000	$479	65
48 Haight St	0.46mi	17/—	16,350	4mo	$8,700,000	$532	63
615 Minna St	0.55mi	13/4.0	4,704	1mo	$2,400,000	$510	61
287-291 Page St	0.59mi	5/3.0	3,518	0mo	$3,674,550	$1,044	60
75-79 Brosnan St	0.51mi	8/4.0	3,656	5mo	$1,385,000	$379	59
50-52 Ramona Ave	0.63mi	5/2.0	2,950	1mo	$1,650,000	$559	57
149-153 Buchanan St	0.66mi	8/3.0	5,427	1mo	$3,825,000	$705	56
436 Oak St	0.68mi	6/3.0	3,611	1mo	$3,363,000	$931	55
224 6th St	0.72mi	9/—	8,127	0mo	$2,000,000	$246	54
190 Hermann St	0.72mi	15/—	7,756	4mo	$3,200,000	$413	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $4,447,712
• Equity at exit: $1,766,603

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 14.48×
• Total profit: $11,810,692
• Equity at exit: $3,043,039

Cash invested: $876,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94103

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Rents YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 26.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $91,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,912 /mo · $46,950/yr
• Insurance: −$1,304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$19,298
• Net cashflow: $50,965

Break-even live

Break-even rent $27,381

Max offer price $3,130,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53,128	-5% $52,046	+0% $50,965	+5% $49,883	+10% $48,802
Rent	-10% $43,705	-5% $47,335	+0% $50,965	+5% $54,595	+10% $58,224
Rate	-1.0pp $52,541	-0.5pp $51,761	base $50,965	+0.5pp $50,154	+1.0pp $49,329

10-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	6	1	$60,288
▸ 4× units	4	1	$31,604
Total (10 units)			$91,893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $782,500
• Closing costs: $93,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Isis St Unit 4 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	5526	$3,200	$0.58	44d	1	0.04mi
1532 Harrison St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	617	$4,897	$7.94	3d	11	0.11mi
380 10th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1122	$5,495	$4.90	45d	1	0.18mi
140 S Van Ness Ave #1679 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,720	$4.58	4d	1	0.20mi
915 Minna St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	—	$4,695	—	25d	1	0.23mi
30 Otis St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$10,000	$11.44	3d	13	0.28mi
30 Washburn St Unit 3 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1576	$5,995	$3.80	8d	1	0.30mi
30 Washburn St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1576	$5,995	$3.80	25d	1	0.30mi
56 Ringold St #3 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	—	$4,800	—	25d	1	0.32mi
1288 Howard St #1908 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$6,710	$8.58	2d	2	0.33mi
1801 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	446	$10,000	$22.42	44d	1	0.33mi
1288 Howard St #604 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	431	$3,400	$7.89	44d	1	0.35mi
1 Brady St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$7,385	$8.30	2d	29	0.35mi
1222 Harrison St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	853	$6,299	$7.38	3d	34	0.36mi
1247 Harrison St #21 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.5	1089	$4,950	$4.55	19d	1	0.36mi
1875 Mission St #210 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	825	$4,000	$4.85	44d	1	0.36mi
68 McCoppin St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	734	$3,825	$5.21	17d	2	0.38mi
8 10th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$8,495	$9.24	3d	28	0.38mi
1699 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	561	$4,817	$8.59	3d	5	0.40mi
345 8th St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	946	$4,095	$4.33	44d	2	0.40mi
2874 16th St Unit 4 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	—	$5,150	—	44d	1	0.40mi
2874 16th St Unit 2874A San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	—	$4,975	—	22d	1	0.40mi
2874 16th St Unit 2876 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	—	$5,300	—	8d	1	0.40mi
1600 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$5,614	$7.08	4d	5	0.40mi
55 9th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$5,580	$6.48	3d	1	0.41mi
55 Page St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	868	$2,450	$2.82	44d	1	0.42mi
1 Polk St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	773	$4,644	$6.00	3d	4	0.44mi
73 Sumner St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,750	$4.32	44d	1	0.44mi
1390 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	561	$4,067	$7.25	2d	14	0.44mi
270 Valencia St #205 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$3,800	$7.60	44d	1	0.44mi
100 Van Ness Ave #1477 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$7,990	$8.94	2d	2	0.45mi
60 Rausch St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	767	$4,300	$5.61	6d	1	0.46mi
88 Elgin Park San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	—	$2,500	—	16d	1	0.46mi
150 Van Ness Ave #1475 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	615	$5,510	$8.96	21d	1	0.48mi
429 14th St #1621 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$3,440	$6.88	44d	1	0.48mi
120 Rose St Unit 120 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	—	$2,200	—	8d	1	0.48mi
1190 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	508	$3,136	$6.17	2d	5	0.49mi
99 Rausch St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	655	$4,250	$6.49	25d	1	0.49mi
101 Polk St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	573	$4,614	$8.04	3d	7	0.50mi
225 Fell St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	512	$4,495	$8.77	8d	3	0.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,130,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,130,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,130,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,130,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,130,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,130,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,130,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    listed $3,130,000 Active 1030-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

    Rare opportunity to acquire a historic corner mixed-use apartment building in the heart of San Francisco's resurgent South of Market neighborhood. The property consists of 10 residential units6 one-bedrooms and 4 studiospositioned above a large 3,300-square-foot bar and restaurant space, for a total of 9,300 square feet. Home to the original Hamburger Mary's, the building occupies an iconic place in San Francisco history and helped shape the city's vibrant nightlife and LGBTQ+ entertainment scene. With the ground-floor retail lease expiring next year, the property offers a compelling opportunity for an owner-user or investor to reimagine this highly visible commercial space with prominent frontage along Folsom and 12th Streets. Most residential units have been renovated with updated kitchens and bathrooms. Low operating expenses and substantial banked rentsif implementedindicate a GRM of 9.54 and a cap rate of 6.85%. Additional capital improvements include a completed seismic retrofit and fire alarm system upgrade.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $1,102,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$175,329
• − Property taxes: −$46,950
• − Insurance: −$15,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$88,217
• − Management: −$88,217
• − Depreciation: −$91,055
• Taxable income: $597,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143,352
• After-tax cash flow: $468,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This historic corner mixed-use building in San Francisco's SoMa neighborhood is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. The property offers a compelling opportunity for an owner-user or investor to reimagine the highly visible commercial space with a fresh exterior and interior touch-ups.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Landlord insurance — Protects against potential liabilities and property damage.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landlord insurance — Protects against potential liabilities and property damage. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,964
• Household income: $116,438
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2666.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 16% Chinese 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 175.4945
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.50%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $3,130,000 San Francisco MLS