5222 Belle Dr · Independence, KY 41051

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

7,405 sqft lot Est $297k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy Updated 2 Bedroom/1 Bath with Study! Gleaming Hardwood Floors Throughout*Ceramic Tile in Bath and Kitchen*Study is Perfect for Office/School or Nursery*Freshly Painted*Updated Kitchen with Island*Updated Bath with Tub/Shower*Newer Roof*Plenty of Storage in Lower Level*Private Large Flat Backyard w/Shed*Insulated Detached Garage*Enjoy this Established Neighborhood with all the Conveniences Independence has to offer just a Few Miles Away! USDA Eligible Area*

Key facts

• Large storage area
• Hvac
• Usda eligible area

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC
• LARGE STORAGE AREA
• PRIVATE LARGE FLAT BACKYARD
• INSULATED DETACHED GARAGE
• USDA ELIGIBLE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one half levels; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range, dishwasher, microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (14 x 11); Bedroom 2 (21 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Electric range, dishwasher, microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.7% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#130 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Middle School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade D, #40 of 217 statewide, top 19%, 616 students, 48% FRL); Simon Kenton High School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 1,859 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.44%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,057
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5217 Belle Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,206 (+1%)	4mo	$232,000	$192	89
5228 Belle Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,054 (-12%)	14mo	$221,900	$211	63
40 Pelly Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,217 (+2%)	1mo	$242,000	$199	62
2144 Hartland Blvd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (-1%)	2mo	$325,000	$274	60
5316 Bedford Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+3%)	0mo	$307,000	$249	58
46 Carrie Way	0.57mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,225 (+3%)	1mo	$352,000	$287	58
5190 Christopher Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (-6%)	1mo	$255,000	$228	47
2169 Hartland Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+3%)	14mo	$295,000	$240	45
2060 Flintwood Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,218 (+2%)	17mo	$310,000	$255	38
120 Carrie Way	0.70mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,287 (+8%)	7mo	$340,000	$264	37
164 Friar Tuck Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,098 (-8%)	10mo	$235,000	$214	37
37 Sylvan Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,025 (-14%)	10mo	$275,000	$268	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,741
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $41,026
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41051

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,723/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10702 Brent Ridge Cir Independence, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1520	$2,144	$1.41	1d	4	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $180,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   remarks 418-char remark
3. 2026-06-07
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,723 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,723 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,723
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $3,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenton County
• NCES district ID: 2103090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $66,183
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #3789
• State rank: #14 of 165 in KY

Livability — Independence

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #6165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 33,054
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,054
• Household income: $104,201
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.60%
• Current HPI: 218.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $180,000 NKMLS
• 2020-11-13 Sold (MLS) $145,000 NKMLS
• 2020-09-16 Pending — NKMLS
• 2020-09-15 Price Changed $139,500 NKMLS
• 2020-09-05 Listed $144,500 NKMLS
• 2013-09-23 Sold (MLS) $39,550 NKMLS
• 2013-08-07 Listed $39,000 NKMLS
• 2009-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 2009-10-28 Sold (MLS) $88,500 NKMLS
• 2009-09-11 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2009-09-11 Listed $89,900 NKMLS
• 2009-05-16 Listed $89,900 NKMLS
• 2008-11-10 Sold (MLS) $38,542 NKMLS
• 2008-03-25 Listed $39,900 NKMLS
• 1989-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,723 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.