459 Winlake Ct · Hurlburt Field, FL 32569

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1990 4,356 sqft lot Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedrooms 2 bath home in Mary Esther within 5 miles from Hurlburt Field. Buyer to verify all pertinent information. Property is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 15 days

Tags

• 5 MILES FROM HURLBURT FIELD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: CASA LOMA S/D

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Central electric HVAC
• Home design: Ranch-style home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1990; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a county road; Residential single-family zoning; Lot dimensions approximately 50 feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on the first floor; All bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpeted areas
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open dining area; Family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-280/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Hurlburt Field — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Florosa Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 536 students, 52% FRL); Fort Walton Beach High School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,620 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $260k implies a 373% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,559 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,024
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 S Lake Ave	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+3%)	5mo	$240,000	$231	85
478 Asa Marie Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+10%)	8mo	$280,000	$252	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-49,846
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-69,401
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,876/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,145

Max offer price $255,885

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,000	$1.45	43d	1	0.24mi
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,850	$1.34	13d	1	0.24mi
46 Kathleen Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	20d	1	0.53mi
20 Stowe Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	20d	1	0.67mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	43d	1	1.20mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	20d	1	1.20mi
116 Dolphin Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	43d	1	1.30mi
208 Squirrel Haven Rd Unit A Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.31mi
324 Michael Cir Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $260,000 Active
3. 2010-07-12
   historical
4. 2010-04-16
   listed $50,000
5. 2009-07-12
   listed $60,000
6. 2009-06-08
   historical
7. 2009-04-06
   listed $79,900
8. 2009-04-06
   listed $79,900
9. 2003-05-09
   historical
10. 2002-12-12
    listed $72,000
11. 2002-12-12
    listed $72,000
12. 1999-12-07
    soldstatus $55,000
13. 1999-12-03
    soldstatus $55,000
14. 1999-10-12
    listed $59,900
15. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,876 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,158 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$282/yr (+$23/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,876
• − Insurance: −$2,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,146
• After-tax cash flow: $867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hurlburt Field

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 2,344
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+447.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $260,000 ECAR
• 2010-07-12 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2010-04-16 Listed $50,000 ECAR
• 2009-07-12 Listed $60,000 NAMLS
• 2009-06-08 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2009-04-06 Listed $79,900 NAMLS
• 2009-04-06 Listed $79,900 ECAR
• 2003-05-09 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2002-12-12 Listed $72,000 NAMLS
• 2002-12-12 Listed $72,000 ECAR
• 1999-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-03 Sold (MLS) $55,000 ECAR
• 1999-10-12 Listed $59,900 ECAR
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,876 · +225.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.