4144 Dauphin Dr · Charlottesville, VA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $666 – $1,236
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 2.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +21.8/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +7.0/10.0
- Schools +6.4/10.0
- 1% rule +5.7/10.0
- Livability +4.2/5.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.1/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$255,000
4144 Dauphin Dr · Charlottesville, VA 22902
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Townhouse
public records
· 105 Days on market
Built 2021
871 sqft lot
Garage
$159/sqft
· 33% below area
Est $383k · 33% under
$130/mo HOA · 5% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Special opportunity by local non-profit to own this home under the community land trust affordable housing model. Income limits apply. No investors. Energy efficient new construction. This town home features 3 level living with an open concept floor plan. Low maintenance exterior. Enter on the lower level to a flex room and one car garage in the back. The main level features family room, dining room, and kitchen equipped with all appliances. Upstairs there is the owner's suite plus a 2nd bedroom and full bath. Just minutes down Avon Street from Downtown.
Key facts
- $130 HOA
- Garage
- Built 2021
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
- Recommended offer: $232k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.9% in Charlottesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 84/100 on livability (#27 in VA, #707 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime D-.
- Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
- Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 752 students, 47% FRL); Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 23% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 396 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$232,050
(9.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.07% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.16%
- Cash-on-cash
- 6.66%
- DSCR
- 1.30
- GRM
- 7.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $382,903
- List price
- $255,000
- Delta
- -33.40%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1964 Tudor Ct | 0.26mi | 3/2.5 | 1,587 (-1%) | 2mo | $390,000 | $246 | 85 |
| 4525 Berwyn Ln | 0.09mi | 2/2.5 (-1) | 1,643 (+3%) | 8mo | $275,000 | $167 | 80 |
| 3204 Bergen St | 0.49mi | 3/2.5 | 1,772 (+11%) | 2mo | $545,000 | $308 | 57 |
| 1550 Primrose Ln | 0.69mi | 3/2.5 | 1,480 (-8%) | 14mo | $418,000 | $282 | 44 |
| 177 Buttercup Ln | 0.75mi | 3/2.5 | 1,420 (-11%) | 4mo | $405,000 | $285 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -6.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.75×
- Total profit
- $-17,493
- Equity at exit
- $38,021
10-year hold
- IRR
- 2.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.16×
- Total profit
- $11,547
- Equity at exit
- $22,048
Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
- State Virginia
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 7 active · 5 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $429,900 ($240/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 14 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- -0.1% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 22902
- Rents YoY
- 2.5%
- Active inventory
- 396
- Price-to-rent
- 7.8×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,722 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,337
- Tax from tax record
- −$180 /mo · $2,164/yr
- Insurance
- −$106
- HOA
- −$130
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$572
- Net cashflow
- $396
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,220
Max offer price
$255,000
Occupancy floor
80%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $541 | -5% $468 | +0% $396 | +5% $324 | +10% $252 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $181 | -5% $289 | +0% $396 | +5% $504 | +10% $611 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $525 | -0.5pp $461 | base $396 | +0.5pp $330 | +1.0pp $263 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $63,750
- Closing costs
- $7,650
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 8 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3423 Montague St Charlottesville, VA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2200 | $2,950 | $1.34 | 6d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 3207 Bergen St Charlottesville, VA | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2077 | $2,895 | $1.39 | 109d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 322 Whispering Oaks Dr Charlottesville, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1635 | $2,400 | $1.47 | 6d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 2058 Avinity Loop Charlottesville, VA | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2222 | $2,800 | $1.26 | 6d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 200 Lake Club Ct Charlottesville, VA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 987 | $2,625 | $2.66 | 0d | 31 | 1.27mi |
| 290 Windfield Cir Charlottesville, VA | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1800 | $2,985 | $1.66 | 6d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 3178 Horizon Rd Unit A Charlottesville, VA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2024 | $3,250 | $1.61 | 109d | 1 | 1.45mi |
| 411 Afton Pond Ct Charlottesville, VA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 974 | $2,191 | $2.25 | 0d | 14 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Community association with monthly feeAssociation fee covers management, common area maintenance, grounds maintenance, playground, snow removal, and trashCommunity amenities include picnic area and playground
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage (1 car) with garage door openerGarage faces rearGarage has electricity
- Security
- Smoke detectors
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerCable availableFiber optic available
- Home design
- Attached propertyThree or more levelsSlab foundation
- Construction
- Built with fiber cement and stick-built constructionComposition shingle roof
- Exterior features
- Townhouse with 2+ common wallsSmall lot (approximately 0.02 acres)
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on the third levelAdditional bedroom on the third level
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heating (natural gas)Heat pump cooling
- Interior features
- Entrance foyerRecessed lightingLow emissivity windows with screens
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryerLaundry room on the third level
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $255,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $255,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $255,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $255,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $255,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $255,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $255,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $255,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $255,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $255,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $255,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $255,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $255,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $255,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $255,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $255,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $255,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-08-28price $255,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $276,250 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $276,250 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $276,250 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $276,250 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $276,250 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $276,250 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $276,250 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $276,250 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $276,250 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $276,250 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $276,250 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $276,250 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $276,250 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $276,250 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $276,250 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $276,250 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $276,250 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $276,250 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $276,250 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $276,250 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $276,250 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $276,250 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $276,250 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $276,250 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $276,250 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $276,250 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $276,250 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $276,250 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $276,250 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $276,250 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $276,250 Active 41 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $2,164 · $180/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,164 · $180/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,660
- − Mortgage interest
- −$14,284
- − Property taxes
- −$2,164
- − Insurance
- −$1,275
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,613
- − Management
- −$2,613
- − HOA
- −$1,560
- − Depreciation
- −$7,418
- Taxable income
- $733
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$176
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,579/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $8,000–$24,000 screening
This townhouse is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good mix of low-maintenance living and a convenient location. Updates to the exterior and interior can significantly increase its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both New flooring in living areas — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑
- Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
C
Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Mountain View Elementary
D
VA #742/1,108
Nat'l #12,785/41,679
Middle
Leslie H. Walton Middle
A
VA #38/342
Nat'l #399/14,009
High
Monticello High
B
VA #210/319
Nat'l #2,785/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Albemarle County Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 5100090
- Math proficiency
- 66% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 77% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $67,851
- Composite
- 62.28/100
- National rank
- #698
- State rank
- #14 of 131 in VA
A
Composite livability gradescore 84/100
Livability — Charlottesville
- Score
- 84/100
- State rank
- #27
- US rank
- #707
Category grades
Amenities A+
Commute A+
Cost of living D
Crime D-
Employment B+
Housing B
Health & safety A+
User ratings D+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Albemarle County · 119,403 people
- City population
- 120,202
- Metro
- Charlottesville, VA
- Population (ZIP)
- 23,486
- Household income
- $93,463
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 12% of renters
Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 119,403 people
- By 2030
- 125,829 · +5.4%
- By 2040
- 137,705 · +15.3%
- By 2050
- 148,058 · +24.0%
- By 2075
- 172,223 · +44.2%
- By 2100
- 185,628 · +55.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (69%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 69% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 7%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 12% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -372.57%
- Current HPI
- 295.9918
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.47%
- Metro
- Charlottesville, VA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.40%
- F500 in state
- 50
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 4 | $236B |
|
||
| Technology / Defense | 3 | $32B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 2 | $176B |
|
||
| Utilities | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $25B |
|
||
| Technology | 2 | $15B |
|
||
Price history
+13.3% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-11 Listed $276,250 CAAR
- 2026-06-05 Coming Soon $276,250 CAAR
- 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) $243,750 CAAR
- 2021-06-30 Listed $243,750 CAAR
Property tax history
+25.2%/yrLatest (2026): $2,164 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…