401 E Joshua Tree Dr · Meridian, ID 83646

$614,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 335 Days on market

Built 2015 6,534 sqft lot Est $721k · 15% under $46/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious four bedroom home + den/office located in the Ventana subdivision. Large backyard with an extended covered patio, fire pit and lawn curbing. Home features granite in kitchen, Samsung gas stove, Bosch ultra-quiet dishwasher, whole home humidifier, Wi-Fi thermostat, whole home water filtration system, blackout window coverings in master bedroom, full height backsplash in kitchen. Home is located within Rocky Mountain High School boundaries. 3 car garage. Views of the mountains and community common area on the front side of home. Front sitting room and upstairs loft.

Key facts

• Wi-fi thermostat
• Large backyard
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHOLE-HOME HUMIDIFIER
• WI-FI THERMOSTAT
• BLACKOUT WINDOW COVERINGS
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Ventana; Paved road access; Lot has standard irrigation/auto sprinkler/full pressurized sprinkler system
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage; Three covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected; Cable connected; Broadband internet
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 2015
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof; Built 2015
• Exterior features: Full wood fencing; Covered patio/deck; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Freestanding oven/range; Gas range; Gas water heater; Tank water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on upper level; Three additional bedrooms on upper level
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Three bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master bath; Den/office; Family room; Walk-in closets; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Gas fireplace (one)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (utility appliances listed: gas water heater, tank water heater)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $615k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $519k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $519k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.1% in Meridian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in ID, #1,176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• Joint School District No. 2 (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #11 of 92 in ID (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prospect Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #68 of 357 statewide, top 19%, 532 students, 15% FRL); Rocky Mountain High School (math 47% / reading 76%, grade B-, #18 of 169 statewide, top 10%, 1,917 students, 8% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 893 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,190/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 1017% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $519,014 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $720,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5363 N Red Hills Pl	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,686 (+2%)	2mo	$724,900	$270	88
5423 N Isla Ave	0.12mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,767 (+5%)	1mo	$585,000	$211	78
5455 Peppard Ave	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,524 (-4%)	1mo	$649,900	$257	74
5832 N Claret Cup Way	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,439 (-7%)	1mo	$725,000	$297	72
5804 N Saguaro Hills Pl	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,718 (+3%)	0mo	$799,990	$294	69
432 W Broderick	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,740 (+4%)	0mo	$749,900	$274	64
869 E Territory St	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,680 (+2%)	1mo	$835,000	$312	63
4481 N Diamond Crk	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,826 (+8%)	1mo	$635,000	$225	57
355 W Gleason Ct Lot 10 Block 1	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,258 (-14%)	0mo	$670,250	$297	52
489 W Dreyfuss St	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,965 (+13%)	1mo	$707,700	$239	50
2515 W Cadbury Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	3,002 (+14%)	1mo	$1,400,000	$466	40
208 E Kaibab Trail St	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-12%)	1mo	$514,000	$221	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-67,645
• Equity at exit: $91,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $226
• Equity at exit: $53,165

Cash invested: $172,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83646

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 893
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,008/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,090
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,676

Max offer price $614,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,725
• Closing costs: $18,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5327 N Red Hills Pl Unit 1460932P Meridian, ID	5.0	2.5	3390	$7,384	$2.18	13d	1	0.19mi
236 W Wausau St Meridian, ID	4.0	2.5	2692	$2,795	$1.04	11d	1	0.80mi
1781 W Milazzo St Meridian, ID	4.0	2.5	2501	$3,100	$1.24	2d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: watergasinternet

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $614,900 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $614,900 Active 334 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $614,900 Active 333 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $614,900 Active 332 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $614,900 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $614,900 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $614,900 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $614,900 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $614,900 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $614,900 Active 320 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $614,900 Active 318 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $614,900 Active 317 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $614,900
14. 2026-04-03
    price $624,900
15. 2026-04-01
    status Active
16. 2026-04-01
    historical
17. 2026-01-07
    price $629,900
18. 2025-09-10
    price $634,900
19. 2025-07-18
    listed $649,900 Active
20. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus Sold 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    Spacious four bedroom home + den/office located in the Ventana subdivision. Large backyard with an extended covered patio, fire pit and lawn curbing. Home features granite in kitchen, Samsung gas stove, Bosch ultra-quiet dishwasher, whole home humidifier, Wi-Fi thermostat, whole home water filtration system, blackout window coverings in master bedroom, full height backsplash in kitchen. Home is located within Rocky Mountain High School boundaries. 3 car garage. Views of the mountains and community common area on the front side of home. Front sitting room and upstairs loft.

21. 2022-07-21
    soldstatus
22. 2022-06-20
    status Pending 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    Spacious four bedroom home + den/office located in the Ventana subdivision. Large backyard with an extended covered patio, fire pit and lawn curbing. Home features granite in kitchen, Samsung gas stove, Bosch ultra-quiet dishwasher, whole home humidifier, Wi-Fi thermostat, whole home water filtration system, blackout window coverings in master bedroom, full height backsplash in kitchen. Home is located within Rocky Mountain High School boundaries. 3 car garage. Views of the mountains and community common area on the front side of home. Front sitting room and upstairs loft.

23. 2022-05-25
    price $659,900 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    Spacious four bedroom home + den/office located in the Ventana subdivision. Large backyard with an extended covered patio, fire pit and lawn curbing. Home features granite in kitchen, Samsung gas stove, Bosch ultra-quiet dishwasher, whole home humidifier, Wi-Fi thermostat, whole home water filtration system, blackout window coverings in master bedroom, full height backsplash in kitchen. Home is located within Rocky Mountain High School boundaries. 3 car garage. Views of the mountains and community common area on the front side of home. Front sitting room and upstairs loft.

24. 2022-05-06
    listed $695,000 Active 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    Spacious four bedroom home + den/office located in the Ventana subdivision. Large backyard with an extended covered patio, fire pit and lawn curbing. Home features granite in kitchen, Samsung gas stove, Bosch ultra-quiet dishwasher, whole home humidifier, Wi-Fi thermostat, whole home water filtration system, blackout window coverings in master bedroom, full height backsplash in kitchen. Home is located within Rocky Mountain High School boundaries. 3 car garage. Views of the mountains and community common area on the front side of home. Front sitting room and upstairs loft.

25. 2015-01-28
    listed $259,990
26. 2014-08-26
    listed $178,540
27. 2014-03-21
    listed $206,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,008 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,243 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,235/yr (+$186/mo · 111.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,008
• − Insurance: −$3,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,983
• − Management: −$4,983
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$17,888
• Taxable loss: −$5,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,356
• After-tax cash flow: $6,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joint School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 1602100
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,573
• Composite: 52.42/100
• National rank: #1576
• State rank: #11 of 92 in ID

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1176

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meridian, ID
• County: Ada County · 522,161 people
• City population: 138,302
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 76,023
• Household income: $102,861
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1017.0

Population outlook (Ada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 535,818 people
• By 2030: 585,751 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 682,435 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 775,818 · +44.8%
• By 2075: 994,458 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 1,148,884 · +114.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ada

• 2024 margin: R (+10.3) · D 43.4% · R 53.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.2pp · 2024: -10.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.3 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.13%
• Current HPI: 318.2697
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.21%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+198.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $614,900 IMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $624,900 IMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — IMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — IMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $629,900 IMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $634,900 IMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $649,900 IMLS
• 2022-08-04 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2022-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-20 Pending — IMLS
• 2022-05-25 Price Changed $659,900 IMLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed $695,000 IMLS
• 2015-01-28 Listed $259,990 IMLS
• 2014-08-26 Listed $178,540 IMLS
• 2014-03-21 Listed $206,200 IMLS

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,008 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.