Rowen Plan · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$315,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Rowen | 1,760 Sq. Ft. One Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2 Baths | Study | 2-car Garage | Covered Patio * * Photos are representative, selections & features may vary with community * *

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12059 Crooked Creek Ln, Santa Fe TX 77510; Status: Active; Last modified May 22, 2026
• Financial info: List price $315,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan: Rowen; Plan inventory type

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1760

🏗️ New construction. The $315,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,079.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21k ($251k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $316k).
• Recommended offer: $307k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 79.1% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $96k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $306,510 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 79.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 260.19%
• DSCR: 12.58
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,079
• List price: $315,990
• Delta: -8.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12039 Crooked Creek Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,801 (+2%)	0mo	$338,898	$188	94
3815 Mulberry Farms Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,760 (0%)	12mo	$340,000	$193	85
3623 Riverlands Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,651 (-6%)	3mo	$321,000	$194	84
12111 Wooden Mill Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,651 (-6%)	9mo	$321,424	$195	79
3826 Garden Hill Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+8%)	7mo	$332,990	$175	74
3811 Garden Hill Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,901 (+8%)	11mo	$359,990	$189	72
12026 Crooked Creek Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+14%)	2mo	$345,096	$172	70
12131 Wooden Mill Ln N	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+14%)	7mo	$330,000	$164	66
4118 Eaton Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,778 (+1%)	11mo	$299,000	$168	64
4018 Avenue L	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,948 (+11%)	3mo	$359,000	$184	60
12008 7th St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+6%)	9mo	$352,000	$189	60
3911 Redbud Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,009 (+14%)	9mo	$360,000	$179	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.24×
• Total profit: $1,275,129
• Equity at exit: $51,303

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.33×
• Total profit: $2,825,320
• Equity at exit: $29,750

Cash invested: $96,342 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,804
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$430 /mo · $5,161/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,185
• Net cashflow: $20,889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,010

Max offer price $344,079

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21,127	-5% $21,008	+0% $20,889	+5% $20,770	+10% $20,651
Rent	-10% $18,562	-5% $19,726	+0% $20,889	+5% $22,052	+10% $23,216
Rate	-1.0pp $21,062	-0.5pp $20,977	base $20,889	+0.5pp $20,800	+1.0pp $20,709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,020
• Closing costs: $10,322
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	45d	1	0.89mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	1.09mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,990 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,990 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,990 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,990 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $315,990 Active 187-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $353,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,274
• − Property taxes: −$5,161
• − Insurance: −$1,720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,274
• − Management: −$28,274
• − Depreciation: −$10,010
• Taxable income: $260,710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$62,570
• After-tax cash flow: $188,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B