5109 Phillips Creek Rd · Belmont, NY 14813

$76,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1972 0.38 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Don’t judge a book by its cover—step inside and see all this property has to offer. While the exterior may be modest, the cozy interior and spacious yard make a lasting impression. This timeless manufactured home, enhanced by an addition, offers a comfortable and thoughtfully designed layout. Inside, you’ll find three bedrooms, a cozy eat-in kitchen open to the living room, a separate laundry room, one and a half baths, and a bonus room with wood heat that is ideal for gatherings or relaxing. The home also offers the added peace of mind of PEX water lines, along with the flexibility of both a gas furnace and a wood stove. Set on two combined parcels totaling 0.94 acres, th

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Bonus room
• Workshop

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED LAYOUT
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached heated garage with electricity; Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and fuses
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing construction; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; PEX plumbing; Metal and shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Gazebo; Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Wood heating stove; Forced air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pull-down attic stairs; Bedroom on main level; Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#401 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Genesee Valley Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #453 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($532 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,593 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.66%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $41,384
• Equity at exit: $52,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $108,757
• Equity at exit: $97,990

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14813

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $267	+0% $245	+5% $223	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $168	-5% $207	+0% $245	+5% $284	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $265	base $245	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $76,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $79,900 Active 1075-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $1,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$437
• After-tax cash flow: $2,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Genesee Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600017
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,704
• Composite: 45.0/100
• National rank: #5858
• State rank: #453 of 755 in NY

Livability — Belmont

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #6959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,465

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.77%
• Current HPI: 271.7193
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $76,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.