16805 Carriage Way · Novi, MI 48168

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,653 sqft · Condo public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2003 $360/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HIGHEST AND BEST OFFERS DUE ON Tuesday, April 18th, 2023 by NOON. .. The BENEFIT of this Condo. .. Northville Township upper RANCH Condo with Northville schools and Northville mailing. EXCELLENT LOCATION within The Terraces at Northville Ridge. SUPER RARE FIND! Why? Unlike many recent sales, this condo has gone through an extreme makeover making it BEST IN CLASS, ready to move into and enjoy. NEW NEW NEW – UPDATED Kitchen, NEW Flooring, Plumbing Fixtures, TRENDY MODERN Hardware, Countertops, Kitchen Cabinets (high quality), NEW Carpet / Padding, NEW HWH, UPDATED Lighting, Freshly Painted, NEW washer and dryer. To purchase a used condo and make these updates would involve an investment well over $300,000. 2 large bedrooms each having walk-in closets, 2 full bathrooms (one is part of master suite with vaulted ceiling), huge living room (also vaulted ceiling) with open floor plan to dining room and kitchen bar. One car attached garage with opener and storage. All Kitchen and Laundry appliances included. Private covered patio accessible from master bedroom & living room. Location Location Location – Convenient to Club House, Playground, Large inground Pool and Jacuzzi, Trails and Lakes (but far enough away for quietness). Well managed HOA includes Snow Removal, Exterior Structure Maintenance, Maintenance Grounds, Pest Control, Sewer, Water, Club House and common areas. This CONDO is going to get a lot of attention. View today or visit one of the upcoming Open Houses. HIGHEST AND BEST WILL BE DETERMINED BY NET PRICE TO SELLER, Loan Type (if any), Down Payment, Inspection contingency, Appraisal contingency, EMD AND Closing date.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New kitchen
• Premium cabinets

Tags

• PRIVATE OUTDOOR ACCESS
• COVERED PATIO
• NEW KITCHEN
• PREMIUM CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Outdoor pool available in community
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $360; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, sidewalks; Association maintains grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential condominium; One story; Has view
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $266k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.8% in Novi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in MI, #377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northville Public Schools (suburban): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #4 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Wood Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #51 of 1,397 statewide, top 5%, 436 students, 6% FRL); Meads Mill Middle School (math 65% / reading 74%, grade A, #28 of 493 statewide, top 6%, 671 students, 9% FRL); Northville High School (math 68% / reading 86%, grade A-, #11 of 713 statewide, top 2%, 2,499 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $265,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-21,886
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $9,641
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48168

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,644/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$360
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,669

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $493	-5% $417	+0% $340	+5% $264	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $218	+0% $340	+5% $463	+10% $585
Rate	-1.0pp $476	-0.5pp $409	base $340	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47671 Alden Ter N Northville, MI	3.0	3.5	2085	$3,100	$1.49	11d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $360 · $4,320/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscapingsnow removalpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $277,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,644 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,401 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: +$757/yr (+$63/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,644
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − HOA: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$45
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11
• After-tax cash flow: $4,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625980
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $108,824
• Composite: 66.21/100
• National rank: #431
• State rank: #4 of 540 in MI

Livability — Novi

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #377

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 43,845
• Population (ZIP): 25,039

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.06%
• Current HPI: 176.9122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $277,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-15 Sold (MLS) $275,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-15 Sold (MLS) $275,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-04-18 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-15 Listed $275,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-15 Listed $275,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-04-10 Coming Soon $275,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-10 Coming Soon $275,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-09-30 Sold (MLS) $1,350 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-09-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-08-20 Listed $1,450 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $177,900 Public Records
• 2003-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $178,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,644 · -38.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.