18908 146th St NW · Elk River, MN 55330

$370,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1973 0.70 ac lot $152/sqft · 47% below area Est $397k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great property that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2 living rooms on the main level. Newly installed carpet in 2026 through out the main level. New paint on the main level. New roof installed in 2025. New furnace in 2015. Water proofing/sealing for Radon completed in 2020.. Drain tile installed in 2020. The yard offers a sprinkler system and a fully fenced yard with a wood privacy fence. 2 car attached garage and a 2+ car detached shop.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New paint
• Drain tile

Tags

• NEWLY INSTALLED CARPET
• NEW PAINT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• WATER PROOFING SEALING
• DRAIN TILE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Elk River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#265 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 457 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $370k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $279,486 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,646
• List price: $370,000
• Delta: -6.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14864 191st Ave NW	0.55mi	3/3.0	2,745 (+13%)	22mo	$510,000	$186	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-72,925
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-80,334
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55330

• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,796/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,052

Max offer price $334,160

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-98	+0% $-203	+5% $-308	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-424	-5% $-313	+0% $-203	+5% $-92	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-109	base $-203	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13918 Riverview Dr NW Elk River, MN	4.0	2.0	2500	$4,500	$1.80	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $370,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 485-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   price $370,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $378,500 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $378,500 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $378,500 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $378,500 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $378,500 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $378,500 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $378,500 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $378,500 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $378,500 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $378,500 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $378,500 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $378,500 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $378,500 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    price $378,500 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Great property that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2 living rooms on the main level. Newly installed carpet in 2026 through out the main level. New paint on the main level. New roof installed in 2025. New furnace in 2015. Water proofing/sealing for Radon completed in 2020.. Drain tile installed in 2020. The yard offers a sprinkler system and a fully fenced yard with a wood privacy fence. 2 car attached garage and a 2+ car detached shop.

19. 2026-03-18
    listed $385,000 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Great property that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2 living rooms on the main level. Newly installed carpet in 2026 through out the main level. New paint on the main level. New roof installed in 2025. New furnace in 2015. Water proofing/sealing for Radon completed in 2020.. Drain tile installed in 2020. The yard offers a sprinkler system and a fully fenced yard with a wood privacy fence. 2 car attached garage and a 2+ car detached shop.

20. 2004-01-05
    soldstatus $182,000
21. 2003-12-04
    soldstatus $182,000 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    A DARLING 3 BR RAMBLER ON A NICELY WOODED LOT. STEEL SIDING, BRAND-NEW 30X40 POLE BLDG. W/ GUTTERS, NEW ASPHALT & CONCRETE DRIVE, NEW SEPTIC, NEWER APPL. MORE CONVENIENT LOCATION TOO! PLEASE PULL UP SUPPLEMENTAL REMARKS. EXCLUDE ELECT. FIREPLACE IN LIV RM

22. 2003-11-07
    historical 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    A DARLING 3 BR RAMBLER ON A NICELY WOODED LOT. STEEL SIDING, BRAND-NEW 30X40 POLE BLDG. W/ GUTTERS, NEW ASPHALT & CONCRETE DRIVE, NEW SEPTIC, NEWER APPL. MORE CONVENIENT LOCATION TOO! PLEASE PULL UP SUPPLEMENTAL REMARKS. EXCLUDE ELECT. FIREPLACE IN LIV RM

23. 2003-10-27
    listed $179,900 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    A DARLING 3 BR RAMBLER ON A NICELY WOODED LOT. STEEL SIDING, BRAND-NEW 30X40 POLE BLDG. W/ GUTTERS, NEW ASPHALT & CONCRETE DRIVE, NEW SEPTIC, NEWER APPL. MORE CONVENIENT LOCATION TOO! PLEASE PULL UP SUPPLEMENTAL REMARKS. EXCLUDE ELECT. FIREPLACE IN LIV RM

24. 1999-08-06
    soldstatus $117,900
25. 1999-07-27
    soldstatus $117,900
26. 1999-06-24
    historical
27. 1999-06-14
    listed $117,900
28. 1997-10-31
    soldstatus $100,000
29. 1997-10-29
    soldstatus $100,000
30. 1997-08-30
    historical
31. 1997-08-15
    listed $104,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,796 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,970 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: +$174/yr (+$14/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$3,796
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,683
• − Management: −$2,683
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$8,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Elk River

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #5795

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 45,721
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,721
• Household income: $115,761
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.46%
• Current HPI: 241.3028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+260.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $378,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $385,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-04 Sold (MLS) $182,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-27 Listed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records
• 1999-07-27 Sold (MLS) $117,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-14 Listed $117,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-29 Sold (MLS) $100,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-15 Listed $104,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,796 · -10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.