4047 Arnolds Mill Opas · Douglasville, GA 30135

$301,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,202 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2006 $137/sqft · 9% below area Est $332k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4047 Arnolds Mill Overpass is located in a community with neighborhood amenities, easy access to schools, shopping, and major roadways throughout Douglasville and the surrounding area. Offering 4 beds and 2.5 baths with 2,200 square feet of living space, a new roof and new flooring. With features like Multiple living areas, fireplace in the living room, and open kitchen it easily allows a large family to live comfortably. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a private bath, while additional rooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or growing households. A daylight basement offers excellent storage or future finishing potential, and the attached two-car garage adds everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Beautiful updates
• Well maintained
• Functional layout

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• BEAUTIFUL UPDATES
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $301k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Douglasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#82 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 610 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,406 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,504
• List price: $301,000
• Delta: -9.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4047 Arnolds Mill Opas	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,202 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$129	97
3335 Tackett Rd	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,315 (+5%)	1mo	$320,000	$138	78
3195 Tackett Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,251 (+2%)	14mo	$395,000	$175	71
4390 Pipestone Pl	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,270 (+3%)	4mo	$319,000	$141	57
2812 Knoll View Pl	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,262 (+3%)	16mo	$294,000	$130	40
4139 Chickasaw Trl	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,999 (-9%)	16mo	$180,000	$90	35
3500 Ridge Hill Pkwy	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,979 (-10%)	18mo	$295,000	$149	29
4118 Lost Springs Trl	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,940 (-12%)	12mo	$300,000	$155	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-62,329
• Equity at exit: $44,880

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-89,121
• Equity at exit: $26,025

Cash invested: $84,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30135

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,578
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,061/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,480

Max offer price $282,075

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-22	+0% $-107	+5% $-192	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-200	+0% $-107	+5% $-15	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-31	base $-107	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,250
• Closing costs: $9,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 Arnolds Mill Opas Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	2356	$2,275	$0.97	44d	1	0.19mi
4014 Sitka Dr Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.0	1532	$1,899	$1.24	44d	1	0.20mi
3332 Lowland Dr Douglasville, GA	4.0	3.0	2167	$2,099	$0.97	25d	1	0.24mi
4275 Spur Look Xing Douglasville, GA	5.0	3.0	2934	$2,529	$0.86	17d	1	0.45mi
3112 Berthas Overlook Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	2331	$2,100	$0.90	6d	1	0.64mi
4400 Feather Way Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.0	2210	$2,300	$1.04	23d	1	0.64mi
4445 Feather Way Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	2405	$2,370	$0.99	44d	1	0.66mi
4475 Feather Way Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	2581	$2,400	$0.93	13d	1	0.69mi
2863 Warhorse Pl Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,050	$1.03	4d	1	0.76mi
3343 Clawing Hawk Way Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.5	1915	$2,075	$1.08	45d	1	0.78mi
3155 Hunting Creek Pass Douglasville, GA	5.0	3.5	2804	$2,400	$0.86	44d	1	0.80mi
2860 Highland Hill Pkwy Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,030	$1.32	18d	1	0.81mi
4100 Clarks Trl Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,980	$1.21	0d	1	0.81mi
4204 Rocky Face Dr Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,700	$0.96	3d	1	0.82mi
3368 Hunting Creek Pass Douglasville, GA	5.0	3.0	2988	$3,069	$1.03	3d	1	0.92mi
4616 Burnt Fork Cir Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,230	$1.03	44d	1	0.94mi
3722 Auger Trl Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	2302	$2,050	$0.89	6d	1	0.96mi
4622 Burnt Fork Cir Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	2083	$1,850	$0.89	25d	1	0.97mi
4625 Burnt Fork Cir Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	2080	$2,150	$1.03	25d	1	0.99mi
4625 Burnt Fork Cir Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	2080	$2,150	$1.03	44d	1	0.99mi
3599 Craggy Perch Douglasville, GA	4.0	3.0	2650	$2,600	$0.98	6d	1	1.11mi
4548 White Rd Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	2076	$2,165	$1.04	0d	1	1.14mi
3761 Monticello St Douglasville, GA	5.0	3.0	2711	$2,345	$0.86	44d	1	1.22mi
4599 White Rd Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,815	$1.16	44d	1	1.22mi
3751 Monticello St Douglasville, GA	4.0	3.0	2091	$2,300	$1.10	21d	1	1.23mi
4031 Daylily Way Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,869	$1.28	17d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Under Contract 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   4047 Arnolds Mill Overpass is located in a community with neighborhood amenities, easy access to schools, shopping, and major roadways throughout Douglasville and the surrounding area. Offering 4 beds and 2.5 baths with 2,200 square feet of living space, a new roof and new flooring. With features like Multiple living areas, fireplace in the living room, and open kitchen it easily allows a large family to live comfortably. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a private bath, while additional rooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or growing households. A daylight basement offers excellent storage or future finishing potential, and the attached two-car garage adds everyday convenience.

2. 2026-04-25
   price $301,000 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   4047 Arnolds Mill Overpass is located in a community with neighborhood amenities, easy access to schools, shopping, and major roadways throughout Douglasville and the surrounding area. Offering 4 beds and 2.5 baths with 2,200 square feet of living space, a new roof and new flooring. With features like Multiple living areas, fireplace in the living room, and open kitchen it easily allows a large family to live comfortably. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a private bath, while additional rooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or growing households. A daylight basement offers excellent storage or future finishing potential, and the attached two-car garage adds everyday convenience.

3. 2026-02-07
   listed $329,900 New 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   4047 Arnolds Mill Overpass is located in a community with neighborhood amenities, easy access to schools, shopping, and major roadways throughout Douglasville and the surrounding area. Offering 4 beds and 2.5 baths with 2,200 square feet of living space, a new roof and new flooring. With features like Multiple living areas, fireplace in the living room, and open kitchen it easily allows a large family to live comfortably. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with a private bath, while additional rooms provide flexibility for guests, office space, or growing households. A daylight basement offers excellent storage or future finishing potential, and the attached two-car garage adds everyday convenience.

4. 2017-02-17
   historical
5. 2017-02-17
   historical
6. 2016-12-21
   price $169,900
7. 2016-12-20
   price $169,900
8. 2016-12-05
   listed $175,000 Active
9. 2016-12-05
   listed $175,000 New
10. 2016-01-02
    historical
11. 2015-07-27
    price $159,000
12. 2015-06-22
    listed $170,000 Active
13. 2005-11-08
    soldstatus $1,815,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,061 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,061 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,861
• − Property taxes: −$3,061
• − Insurance: −$1,505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − Depreciation: −$8,756
• Taxable loss: −$6,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,573
• After-tax cash flow: $287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas County
• NCES district ID: 1301860
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,335
• Composite: 25.84/100
• National rank: #7353
• State rank: #92 of 174 in GA

Livability — Douglasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #6971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 141,416 people
• City population: 114,380
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 66,800
• Household income: $94,526
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 890.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,022 people
• By 2030: 173,956 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 196,859 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 220,017 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 279,831 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 322,702 · +97.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.4) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +29.6pp toward D · 2008: 1.8pp · 2024: 31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.4 2020: D+25.1 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.50%
• Current HPI: 223.9534
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-83.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $301,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $329,900 GAMLS
• 2017-02-17 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2017-02-17 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2016-12-21 Price Changed $169,900 GAMLS
• 2016-12-20 Price Changed $169,900 FMLS
• 2016-12-05 Listed $175,000 FMLS
• 2016-12-05 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2016-01-02 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2015-07-27 Price Changed $159,000 FMLS
• 2015-06-22 Listed $170,000 FMLS
• 2005-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $1,815,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,061 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.