65 Woodchuck Pkwy · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,972 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot $48/sqft · 44% below area Est $169k · 44% under $905/mo HOA · 47% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover easy, low-maintenance living in this well-appointed 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly sought-after Pine Ridge at Crestwood 55+ community. Designed for both comfort and functionality, this home features an open-concept living room and kitchen with a seamless flow ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a vibrant lifestyle with access to a clubhouse, fitness center, billiards, bocce ball, shuffleboard, library, craft room, fishing, and a full calendar of social activities. With on-site management, a community shuttle, and a pet-friendly setting, this is an exceptional opportunity to enjoy one of Ocean County's most desirable active adult communities.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Billiards
• Bocce ball

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• BILLIARDS
• BOCCE BALL
• SHUFFLEBOARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Pine Ridge at Crestwood; Monthly association fee of $905.25; HOA covers trash, common area, lawn maintenance, and snow removal; No pool listed

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Located in the Pine Ridge subdivision, Manchester Township (Whiting area)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-367/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (4.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.

Recommended offer $90,573 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,742
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -40.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
712 Evergreen Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (-4%)	9mo	$190,000	$100	65
4 Aaron Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	2,019 (+2%)	7mo	$394,000	$195	63
8 Rosedale Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0	2,019 (+2%)	6mo	$407,000	$202	62
6 Rosedale Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	2,031 (+3%)	9mo	$410,000	$202	60
1 Springdale Rd	0.68mi	2/2.0	2,019 (+2%)	6mo	$385,000	$191	59
27 Amesbury Rd #64	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,826 (-7%)	1mo	$369,000	$202	56
1 Amherst Rd	0.46mi	2/2.5	1,826 (-7%)	12mo	$365,000	$200	54
1 Drury Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,762 (-11%)	0mo	$362,500	$206	53
2 Norwood Ct	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,826 (-7%)	7mo	$365,000	$200	51
8 Tisdale Rd	0.65mi	2/2.0	2,130 (+8%)	7mo	$397,000	$186	50
6 Berkeley St #64	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,768 (-10%)	4mo	$350,000	$198	48
7 John Adams Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,750 (-11%)	10mo	$379,950	$217	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-16,757
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-14,722
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$905
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $90,573

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	12d	1	0.21mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	1.46mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $905 · $10,860/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $95,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $99,900 Active 690-char remark
14. 2026-05-07
    price $99,900
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $105,000 Active
16. 2022-07-06
    price $1,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$10,860
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$1,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$315
• After-tax cash flow: $-52/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable community offers a comfortable and functional living space with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+7500.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $95,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $99,900 MOMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $99,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $105,000 MOMLS
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $1,250 RENT.