319 Walnut Ave SW · St. Michael, MN 55376

$350,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1980 0.30 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous Rambler fully remodeled with lots of upgrades in this One Level Home next to park on a corner lot with fenced in yard. Open floor plan with lots of natural light, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen and a fabulous patio off the DR. Enjoy this 4 bedroom and 2 bathroom home. Close to shopping, Schools and parks.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (approx. 20 x 30, 600 sq ft)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One story
• Construction: Block foundation; Roof replaced or age 8 years or less
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Patio; Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 140 x 95

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (main and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One three-quarter bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement with block construction; Electric fireplace; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in St. Michael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Michael-Albertville School District (rural): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #17 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: St. Michael Elementary (math 84% / reading 71%, grade A, #21 of 857 statewide, top 3%, 588 students, 23% FRL); St. Michael-Albertville Middle East (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #24 of 258 statewide, top 9%, 892 students, 18% FRL); St. Michael-Albertville Senior High (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B, #27 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 2,240 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 356 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $230,273 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-83,485
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-107,379
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55376

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,084/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,833

Max offer price $275,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-320	+0% $-419	+5% $-518	+10% $-617
Rent	-10% $-601	-5% $-510	+0% $-419	+5% $-328	+10% $-237
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-330	base $-419	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-602

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11910 Town Center Dr NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,364	$2.59	0d	8	1.38mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $350,000 Active
4. 2026-04-16
   price $350,000
5. 2026-04-16
   historical $335,000
6. 2020-03-10
   soldstatus $240,000
7. 2020-03-05
   soldstatus $240,000 Sold 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   Fabulous Rambler fully remodeled with lots of upgrades in this One Level Home next to park on a corner lot with fenced in yard. Open floor plan with lots of natural light, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen and a fabulous patio off the DR. Enjoy this 4 bedroom and 2 bathroom home. Close to shopping, Schools and parks.

8. 2020-02-10
   status Pending 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   Fabulous Rambler fully remodeled with lots of upgrades in this One Level Home next to park on a corner lot with fenced in yard. Open floor plan with lots of natural light, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen and a fabulous patio off the DR. Enjoy this 4 bedroom and 2 bathroom home. Close to shopping, Schools and parks.

9. 2020-02-06
   historical Contingent - Inspection 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   Fabulous Rambler fully remodeled with lots of upgrades in this One Level Home next to park on a corner lot with fenced in yard. Open floor plan with lots of natural light, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen and a fabulous patio off the DR. Enjoy this 4 bedroom and 2 bathroom home. Close to shopping, Schools and parks.

10. 2020-02-05
    listed $234,900 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Fabulous Rambler fully remodeled with lots of upgrades in this One Level Home next to park on a corner lot with fenced in yard. Open floor plan with lots of natural light, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen and a fabulous patio off the DR. Enjoy this 4 bedroom and 2 bathroom home. Close to shopping, Schools and parks.

11. 1988-08-31
    soldstatus $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,084 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,502 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,084
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$11,410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,738
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Michael-Albertville School District
• NCES district ID: 2733790
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $86,897
• Composite: 57.91/100
• National rank: #1042
• State rank: #17 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Michael

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Michael, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• City population: 19,317
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,106
• Household income: $131,266
• Rent vs Own: 9.3% rent · 90.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 132.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.03%
• Current HPI: 229.5977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+504.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $335,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-05 Sold (MLS) $240,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-10 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-05 Listed $234,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,084 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.