3547 Chapel Ln · Blackshear, GA 31516

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1995 1.56 ac lot $107/sqft · 38% below area Est $210k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living on 1.56 acres in Pierce County, tucked away on a quiet dead-end road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features an open layout where the family room, kitchen, and dining area flow comfortably together, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to a spacious yard shaded by beautiful trees, offering plenty of room to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. A large workshop provides extra space for storage, hobbies, or projects and is a great addition to the property. The home is served by a private well and septic system and offers the privacy and quiet setting many buyers are looking for.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Private well
• Large workshop

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Blackshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#154 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,247 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,403
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -38.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6324 Bailey Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	3mo	$188,000	$163	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-13,677
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,588
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31516

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $416/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $129,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Price Change 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Price Change 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $129,900 Price Change 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $134,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 1.56 acres in Pierce County, tucked away on a quiet dead-end road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features an open layout where the family room, kitchen, and dining area flow comfortably together, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to a spacious yard shaded by beautiful trees, offering plenty of room to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. A large workshop provides extra space for storage, hobbies, or projects and is a great addition to the property. The home is served by a private well and septic system and offers the privacy and quiet setting many buyers are looking for.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $134,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 1.56 acres in Pierce County, tucked away on a quiet dead-end road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features an open layout where the family room, kitchen, and dining area flow comfortably together, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to a spacious yard shaded by beautiful trees, offering plenty of room to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. A large workshop provides extra space for storage, hobbies, or projects and is a great addition to the property. The home is served by a private well and septic system and offers the privacy and quiet setting many buyers are looking for.

18. 2026-03-19
    price $139,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 1.56 acres in Pierce County, tucked away on a quiet dead-end road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features an open layout where the family room, kitchen, and dining area flow comfortably together, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to a spacious yard shaded by beautiful trees, offering plenty of room to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. A large workshop provides extra space for storage, hobbies, or projects and is a great addition to the property. The home is served by a private well and septic system and offers the privacy and quiet setting many buyers are looking for.

19. 2026-03-19
    price $139,900 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 1.56 acres in Pierce County, tucked away on a quiet dead-end road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features an open layout where the family room, kitchen, and dining area flow comfortably together, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to a spacious yard shaded by beautiful trees, offering plenty of room to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. A large workshop provides extra space for storage, hobbies, or projects and is a great addition to the property. The home is served by a private well and septic system and offers the privacy and quiet setting many buyers are looking for.

20. 2026-03-02
    listed $145,000 New 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 1.56 acres in Pierce County, tucked away on a quiet dead-end road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features an open layout where the family room, kitchen, and dining area flow comfortably together, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to a spacious yard shaded by beautiful trees, offering plenty of room to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. A large workshop provides extra space for storage, hobbies, or projects and is a great addition to the property. The home is served by a private well and septic system and offers the privacy and quiet setting many buyers are looking for.

21. 2026-03-02
    listed $145,000 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 1.56 acres in Pierce County, tucked away on a quiet dead-end road. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features an open layout where the family room, kitchen, and dining area flow comfortably together, creating a welcoming space for everyday living. Step outside to a spacious yard shaded by beautiful trees, offering plenty of room to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. A large workshop provides extra space for storage, hobbies, or projects and is a great addition to the property. The home is served by a private well and septic system and offers the privacy and quiet setting many buyers are looking for.

22. 2024-04-22
    soldstatus $104,800 Sold
23. 2024-04-22
    soldstatus $104,800 Closed
24. 2024-04-22
    soldstatus $104,800 Closed
25. 2024-04-22
    soldstatus $104,800
26. 2024-03-05
    status Pending
27. 2024-03-05
    status Pending
28. 2024-03-05
    status Under Contract
29. 2024-02-29
    listed $99,000 New
30. 2024-02-29
    listed $99,000 Active
31. 2024-02-29
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $416 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 187.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$416
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$194
• After-tax cash flow: $1,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Blackshear

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #9915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,465
• Population (ZIP): 15,465

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.01%
• Current HPI: 259.8612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+36.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $134,900 GIAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $134,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $139,900 GIAR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $139,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $145,000 GIAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $145,000 GAMLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $104,800 Public Records
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $104,800 SEGAMLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $104,800 GIAR
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $104,800 GAMLS
• 2024-03-05 Pending — SEGAMLS
• 2024-03-05 Pending — GIAR
• 2024-03-05 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listed $99,000 SEGAMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listed $99,000 GIAR
• 2024-02-29 Listed $99,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $416 · +113.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.