1405 Key Pkwy Unit 201A · Frederick, MD 21702

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Condo · 11 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $181k · at est. $600/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the charming community of Bartonsville, this exquisite 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom apartment offers a perfect blend of comfort and modern elegance. With a thoughtful open floor plan, the interior invites you to experience a warm and inviting atmosphere, ideal for both relaxation and entertaining. Step inside to discover a beautifully designed space featuring laminate plank flooring that flows seamlessly throughout. The kitchen is a culinary delight, boasting ample table space and a pantry for all your storage needs. Equipped with high-quality appliances, including a sleek electric oven/range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and dryer, this kitchen is ready for your culinary adventures. The l

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Ample table space
• Private balcony

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE PLANK FLOORING
• AMPLE TABLE SPACE
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• TRANQUIL VIEWS
• SIGNIFICANT RENOVATIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condominium ownership; Not in federal flood zone; Ground rent and front foot fees billed annually; In city limits; Bus stop within 1 mile
• HOA & community: Condo fee $600 monthly (professional off-site management); HOA fee includes recreation facility, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot; Free and fee parking available; unassigned spaces
• Security: Community security amenity
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Condominium unit/flat; Garden-style building (1–4 floors); 3 total stories; Unit entry on level 2; Building not winterized; Brick front
• Construction: Built/majorly remodeled in 2024 (effective year); Above-grade structure; Brick-front construction
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Balcony; Pets allowed (cats and dogs OK)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator; Pantry / table space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Laminate plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Kitchen with table space; Pantry; Store/office space; Not furnished; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Dryer in unit; Washer/dryer hookup in unit; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (10.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Frederick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in MD, #3,041 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
• Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waverley Elementary (math 7% / reading 9%, grade F, #674 of 860 statewide, top 79%, 844 students, 84% FRL); Monocacy Middle (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 926 students, 60% FRL); Gov. Thomas Johnson High (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #80 of 222 statewide, top 37%, 1,962 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 20% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 275 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $180k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $161,771 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,548
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 5.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-37,548
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-48,570
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21702

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,345/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$600
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,296

Max offer price $161,771

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1420 Key Pkwy Frederick, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,868	$2.02	1d	30	0.09mi
1469 Key Pkwy Frederick, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	828	$1,887	$2.28	1d	9	0.18mi
402 Harlan Way Frederick, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,926	$1.87	24d	1	0.25mi
195 Stonegate Dr Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1266	$2,600	$2.05	24d	1	0.28mi
1333 Hampshire Dr Unit E Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,295	$1.37	43d	1	0.28mi
1333 Hampshire Dr Unit E Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,295	$1.37	24d	1	0.28mi
1330 Hampshire Dr Unit 7E Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,250	$1.41	24d	1	0.29mi
1631 Blacksmith Way Unit 214B Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,600	$1.47	18d	1	0.51mi
1631 Blacksmith Way Unit 214B Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,700	$1.52	24d	1	0.51mi
1518 Wilmer Park Ln Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,800	$1.59	5d	1	0.53mi
141 Willowdale Dr Frederick, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,078	$2.00	2d	36	0.55mi
1576 Wilmer Park Ln Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,600	$1.48	43d	1	0.65mi
150 Willowdale Dr Frederick, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,918	$1.92	1d	18	0.74mi
1119 Frontline Dr Frederick, MD	3.0	3.0	1748	$2,550	$1.46	43d	1	0.98mi
108 Leather Fern Way Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,350	$1.36	43d	1	1.06mi
111 Twin Eagle Ct Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,350	$1.36	5d	1	1.16mi
116 Whiskey Creek Cir Unit 1 Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,550	$1.38	20d	1	1.17mi
103 Whiskey Creek Cir Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,450	$1.44	43d	1	1.20mi
483 Arwell Ct #483 Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1088	$2,300	$2.11	10d	1	1.22mi
476 Arwell Ct #476 Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	43d	1	1.25mi
494 Arwell Ct Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1088	$2,100	$1.93	24d	1	1.27mi
534 Lancaster Pl #534 Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1088	$2,150	$1.98	24d	1	1.28mi
546 Wellington Ct Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	43d	1	1.30mi
567 Lancaster Pl #567 Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,300	$2.25	43d	1	1.31mi
575 Lancaster Pl Frederick, MD	3.0	1.5	1088	$2,330	$2.14	43d	1	1.32mi
302 Baughmans Ln Unit M Frederick, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	22d	1	1.36mi
542 Hollyberry Way Unit 1 Frederick, MD	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,400	$1.50	24d	1	1.39mi
607 Himes Ave #104 Frederick, MD	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	2d	1	1.40mi
100 Alessandra Ct Frederick, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	932	$2,120	$2.27	1d	22	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $600 · $7,200/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on marketlisting id $179,900 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $189,900 224-char remark
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $199,000 Active 224-char remark
17. 2024-06-03
    historical
18. 2024-05-05
    listed $185,900 Active
19. 2024-05-04
    historical
20. 2024-03-30
    status Active
21. 2024-03-29
    historical
22. 2024-03-11
    historical
23. 2019-09-10
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed
25. 2019-08-18
    status Pending
26. 2019-08-01
    listed $95,000 Active
27. 2019-05-31
    historical
28. 2019-04-29
    price $101,995
29. 2019-04-13
    price $109,990
30. 2019-04-12
    status Active
31. 2019-04-12
    status Active
32. 2019-04-02
    historical
33. 2019-04-02
    historical
34. 2019-02-02
    price $109,995
35. 2019-02-01
    price $104,900
36. 2018-11-21
    price $114,900
37. 2018-11-07
    price $120,900
38. 2018-10-27
    price $122,900
39. 2018-10-12
    listed $124,910 Active
40. 2003-09-18
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,345 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,345 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,345
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,079
• − Management: −$2,079
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$941
• After-tax cash flow: $-290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400330
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $84,020
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #5429
• State rank: #4 of 24 in MD

Livability — Frederick

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3041

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frederick, MD
• County: Frederick County · 171,753 people
• City population: 154,619
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 49,605
• Household income: $106,983
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 269,438 people
• By 2030: 280,160 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 298,408 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 311,062 · +15.4%
• By 2075: 342,819 · +27.2%
• By 2100: 351,361 · +30.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.8) · D 53.2% · R 44.4% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -1.0pp · 2024: 8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.8 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: R+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.15%
• Current HPI: 275.7558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+158.8% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-05 Listed $185,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-11 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-01 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-29 Price Changed $101,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-13 Price Changed $109,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-02 Price Changed $109,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-01 Price Changed $104,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-21 Price Changed $114,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-07 Price Changed $120,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-27 Price Changed $122,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-12 Listed $124,910 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,345 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.