Plan 1042 Plan · Houston, TX 77447

$193,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Dedicated pantry
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $193,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,842.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $170,715 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,842
• List price: $193,995
• Delta: -19.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19823 Corberry Park Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,042 (0%)	23mo	$234,995	$226	79
23031 Glory Orchid Dr	0.40mi	2/2.5	1,186 (+14%)	1mo	$249,900	$211	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-53,601
• Equity at exit: $35,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-80,041
• Equity at exit: $20,737

Cash invested: $67,156 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,098

Max offer price $219,056

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-61	+0% $-144	+5% $-227	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-219	+0% $-144	+5% $-68	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-83	base $-144	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,961
• Closing costs: $7,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$1,995	$0.97	0d	1	0.47mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	1.14mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	3d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $193,995 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,995 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,995 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,995 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,995 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,995 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,995 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,995 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,995 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $193,995 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,995 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,995 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,995 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,995 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    price $193,995 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

16. 2026-03-28
    price $191,995 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

17. 2026-03-14
    price $188,995 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

18. 2026-03-07
    price $186,995 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

19. 2026-02-06
    price $184,995 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

20. 2026-01-22
    price $189,995 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

21. 2026-01-08
    listed $194,995 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 6-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Community park * Open space * Great shopping nearby * Near popular restaurants

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,199
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$6,977
• Taxable loss: −$5,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Houston, TX, is in excellent condition with good systems and a smart home setup, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and property value
• Both Smart lighting — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and property value ↑
• Both Smart lighting — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $193,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $191,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $188,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $186,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $184,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $189,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Listed $194,995 Zillow