Is Plan 1042 Plan in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.6% cap rate and $-131/mo modeled cash flow at a $193,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 1042 Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 5.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,904/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 36.36

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +10.3/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.0/10.0
DSCR +2.9/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$193,995

Plan 1042 Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 212 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

Open floor plan
Dedicated pantry
Smart thermostat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (1.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Hockley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $170,715 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.80% ✗
Cap rate: 5.63%
Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
DSCR: 0.89
GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $236,509
List price: $193,995
Delta: -17.98%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22870 Fulton Landing Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+19%)	0mo	$224,445	$181	65
22862 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+19%)	5mo	$234,995	$189	60
22846 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+19%)	7mo	$232,995	$188	59
19719 Corberry Park Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+19%)	13mo	$242,287	$195	57
22843 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+19%)	9mo	$246,315	$198	56
23031 Glory Orchid Dr	0.40mi	2/2.5	1,186 (+14%)	2mo	$249,900	$211	54
19810 Kimball Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+18%)	19mo	$215,900	$175	44
18815 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.98mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+11%)	4mo	$235,990	$204	39
18827 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.97mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+11%)	4mo	$225,990	$195	39
18810 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.99mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+11%)	6mo	$227,990	$197	36
18730 Sunset Horizon Dr	1.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+11%)	7mo	$229,990	$199	36
18714 Sunset Horizon Dr	1.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+11%)	7mo	$228,990	$198	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.6%
Equity multiple: 0.21×
Total profit: $-52,190
Equity at exit: $35,264

10-year hold

IRR: -29.7%
Equity multiple: -0.17×
Total profit: $-77,597
Equity at exit: $20,449

Cash invested: $66,223 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 13 active · 12 under contract
Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $232,990 ($193/sqft)
Median days on market: 59 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +17.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2097
Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,904 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,240
Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,548/yr
Insurance: −$99
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $217,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-49	+0% $-131	+5% $-212	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-206	+0% $-131	+5% $-55	+10% $20
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-70	base $-131	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $59,127
Closing costs: $7,095
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$1,995	$0.97	0d	1	0.47mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,930	$1.21	2d	5	0.99mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,589	$1.12	38d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $193,995 Active 212 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $193,995 Active 210 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $193,995 Active 209 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $193,995 Active 208 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $193,995 Active 207 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $193,995 Active 204 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $193,995 Active 202 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $193,995 Active 201 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $193,995 Active 199 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $193,995 Active 197 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $193,995 Active 196 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $193,995 Active 195 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $193,995 Active 194 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $193,995 Active 193 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $193,995 Active 190 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $193,995 Active 189 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $193,995 Active 188 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $193,995 Active 187 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $193,995 Active 186 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $193,995 Active 185 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $193,995 Active 184 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $193,995 Active 183 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $193,995 Active 182 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $193,995 Active 180 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $193,995 Active 179 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $193,995 Active 178 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $193,995 Active 177 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $193,995 Active 176 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $193,995 Active 175 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $193,995 Active 174 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $193,995 Active 173 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $193,995 Active 172 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $193,995 Active 171 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $193,995 Active 170 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $193,995 Active 169 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $193,995 Active 167 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $193,995 Active 164 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $193,995 Active 161 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $193,995 Active 160 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $193,995 Active 159 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $193,995 Active 158 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $193,995 Active 156 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $193,995 Active 152 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $193,995 Active 151 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $193,995 Active 150 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $193,995 Active 147 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $193,995 Active 146 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $193,995 Active 145 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $193,995 Active 144 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $193,995 Active 143 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,844
− Mortgage interest: −$13,248
− Property taxes: −$3,548
− Insurance: −$1,183
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
− Management: −$1,828
− Depreciation: −$6,880
Taxable loss: −$5,670

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,361
After-tax cash flow: $-206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Houston, TX, is in excellent condition with good systems and a smart home setup, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
Both Smart security system — Improves safety and property value ↑
Both Smart lighting — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-04-11 Price Changed $193,995 Zillow
2026-03-28 Price Changed $191,995 Zillow
2026-03-14 Price Changed $188,995 Zillow
2026-03-07 Price Changed $186,995 Zillow
2026-02-06 Price Changed $184,995 Zillow
2026-01-22 Price Changed $189,995 Zillow
2026-01-08 Listed $194,995 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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