9996 Elder St · Willis, TX 77318

$165,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily · 167 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 2,099 sqft lot $122/sqft · 6% above area Est $156k · 6% over $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Look at this wide-open concept! This incredible home features 3 bedrooms, 2-1/2 baths, an island kitchen, tons of storage throughout. 10' ceilings in kitchen/living/dining. Samsung Stainless Steel appliance package including easy clean top range with electric oven with air fryer & convection features, 3 rack dishwasher, and microwave. Brand NEW CONSTRUCTION with incredible energy saving features: double pane windows, LED recessed lighting throughout, R-38 Insulation & so much more! In the heart of Conroe, you will have easy access to shopping, entertainment, restaurants, The Woodlands & Lake Conroe!! Walnut Cove boasts recreational facilities with newly installed grills & picnic tables, community pool & boat launch.

Key facts

• R-38 insulation
• Community pool
• Island kitchen

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• ENERGY SAVING FEATURES
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• LED RECESSED LIGHTING
• R-38 INSULATION
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,786
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 5.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10176 Barberry St	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	3mo	$127,500	$94	92
10196 Barberry St	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	6mo	$150,000	$111	92
10174 Barberry St	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	7mo	$150,000	$111	89
9792 Black Gum	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	7mo	$150,000	$111	82
12534 Andwood St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	1mo	$185,000	$132	79
8685 Sassafras St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	5mo	$130,000	$96	76
8687 Sassafras St	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,355 (0%)	8mo	$130,000	$96	73
11371 Underwood St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+6%)	8mo	$188,900	$132	59
11670 Vistawood St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	9mo	$85,000	$70	58
11519 Persimmon St	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,196 (-12%)	3mo	$65,000	$54	56
11859 Vanwood St	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (-9%)	8mo	$89,000	$72	50
9774 Arbor Oak	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	3mo	$195,000	$129	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,926
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,415
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $292	+0% $235	+5% $178	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $165	+0% $235	+5% $305	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $277	base $235	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	0.31mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	0.31mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.32mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.40mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.40mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	1.11mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	1.14mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-01-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Look at this wide-open concept! This incredible home features 3 bedrooms, 2-1/2 baths, an island kitchen, tons of storage throughout. 10' ceilings in kitchen/living/dining. Samsung Stainless Steel appliance package including easy clean top range with electric oven with air fryer & convection features, 3 rack dishwasher, and microwave. Brand NEW CONSTRUCTION with incredible energy saving features: double pane windows, LED recessed lighting throughout, R-38 Insulation & so much more! In the heart of Conroe, you will have easy access to shopping, entertainment, restaurants, The Woodlands & Lake Conroe!! Walnut Cove boasts recreational facilities with newly installed grills & picnic tables, community pool & boat launch.

16. 2026-01-05
    listed $165,000 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Look at this wide-open concept! This incredible home features 3 bedrooms, 2-1/2 baths, an island kitchen, tons of storage throughout. 10' ceilings in kitchen/living/dining. Samsung Stainless Steel appliance package including easy clean top range with electric oven with air fryer & convection features, 3 rack dishwasher, and microwave. Brand NEW CONSTRUCTION with incredible energy saving features: double pane windows, LED recessed lighting throughout, R-38 Insulation & so much more! In the heart of Conroe, you will have easy access to shopping, entertainment, restaurants, The Woodlands & Lake Conroe!! Walnut Cove boasts recreational facilities with newly installed grills & picnic tables, community pool & boat launch.

17. 2025-12-10
    price $165,000
18. 2025-11-04
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2025-11-04
    historical
20. 2025-10-01
    listed $179,900 Active
21. 2025-06-06
    historical
22. 2025-03-28
    listed $189,900 Active
23. 2025-03-28
    historical
24. 2025-03-12
    listed $197,900 Active
25. 2025-03-11
    historical
26. 2025-01-18
    listed $197,900 Active
27. 2025-01-17
    historical
28. 2024-11-04
    listed $199,900 Active
29. 2024-10-31
    historical
30. 2024-10-25
    listed $199,900 Active
31. 2024-10-25
    historical
32. 2024-08-29
    listed $199,900 Active
33. 2024-08-29
    historical
34. 2024-07-04
    listed $199,900 Active
35. 2024-05-31
    historical
36. 2024-05-23
    price $199,900
37. 2024-05-14
    price $202,400
38. 2024-05-14
    price $202,500
39. 2024-03-22
    price $204,900
40. 2024-03-12
    price $209,900
41. 2024-02-29
    listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $2,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This AS-IS home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a wide-open concept, modern appliances, and energy-saving features, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds modern features
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds modern features ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed $197,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listed $197,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $202,400 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $202,500 HARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $204,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listed $219,900 HARMLS