350 S Caroline St · Madisonville, KY 42431

$124,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,391 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1954 0.27 ac lot Est $159k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic split level home with several recent updates including roof, windows, paint, carpet, cabinetry. Great living space with main level living room and basement family room. Updated kitchen and bathrooms. Large laundry room. Hardwood and laminate flooring. Large yard. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). Property was built prior to 1978 and lead based paint may potentially exist.

Key facts

• Comfortable bedroom
• Fresh paint
• Full bathroom

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• FULL BATHROOM
• COMFORTABLE BEDROOM
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#132 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $124k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,560 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,574
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
572 E Broadway St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-1%)	3mo	$174,000	$126	87
235 Hanner St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+3%)	2mo	$209,000	$146	86
386 S Daves St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-6%)	3mo	$205,500	$157	80
470 E Broadway St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+3%)	7mo	$60,000	$42	78
778 Hodge St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-3%)	11mo	$107,900	$80	66
954 Mcpherson Drvie Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	9mo	$125,000	$93	63
508 E Broadway St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,208 (-13%)	0mo	$137,500	$114	63
344 Hall St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+8%)	8mo	$100,000	$67	62
535 S Scott St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+7%)	11mo	$158,500	$106	56
454 E Noel Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,391 (0%)	11mo	$159,000	$114	52
421 Woodlawn Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-12%)	12mo	$129,900	$106	42
33 W Lake St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+14%)	2mo	$205,000	$129	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,496
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,265
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42431

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $964

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $202	+0% $167	+5% $132	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $121	+0% $167	+5% $213	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $229	-0.5pp $199	base $167	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   status Active
3. 2026-04-03
   price $124,000
4. 2026-03-27
   status Active
5. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-23
   price $127,000
7. 2026-01-22
   status Active
8. 2026-01-12
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-05
   listed $140,000 Active
10. 2026-01-03
    status Active
11. 2025-12-18
    status Pending
12. 2025-11-24
    price $143,000
13. 2025-10-11
    listed $150,000 Active
14. 2019-07-12
    soldstatus $72,500 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Classic split level home with several recent updates including roof, windows, paint, carpet, cabinetry. Great living space with main level living room and basement family room. Updated kitchen and bathrooms. Large laundry room. Hardwood and laminate flooring. Large yard. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). Property was built prior to 1978 and lead based paint may potentially exist.

15. 2019-04-08
    listed $64,500 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Classic split level home with several recent updates including roof, windows, paint, carpet, cabinetry. Great living space with main level living room and basement family room. Updated kitchen and bathrooms. Large laundry room. Hardwood and laminate flooring. Large yard. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). Property was built prior to 1978 and lead based paint may potentially exist.

16. 2015-08-07
    soldstatus $79,900
17. 2012-04-03
    soldstatus $65,000
18. 2004-06-24
    soldstatus $48,500
19. 1985-07-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,066 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable loss: −$40
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Madisonville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #6200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madisonville, KY
• City population: 27,095
• Population (ZIP): 27,095

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.52%
• Current HPI: 220.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+254.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $124,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-03-17 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $127,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-01-12 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-01-05 Listed $140,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2025-12-18 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $143,000 MHCBOR
• 2025-10-11 Listed $150,000 MHCBOR
• 2019-07-12 Sold (MLS) $72,500 GORAMLS
• 2019-04-08 Listed $64,500 GORAMLS
• 2015-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2012-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $720 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.