Columbia Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$349,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home divides space for optimal tranquility. The first floor showcases an open design that encompasses the dining room, kitchen and living room for simplified family living and entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite is separate from the upstairs bedrooms and features a private bathroom. The second level hosts four additional bedrooms and a versatile loft.

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,521.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $291,397 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,521
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -10.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13606 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,490 (+4%)	0mo	$393,990	$158	73
13610 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,490 (+4%)	0mo	$409,990	$165	73
15017 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.24mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+9%)	0mo	$418,798	$161	71
13607 New Jade Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,336 (-2%)	1mo	$371,760	$159	70
15039 Coltman Hill Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-4%)	4mo	$350,000	$152	66
15102 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.35mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+9%)	5mo	$409,740	$157	62
13405 New Jade Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,576 (+8%)	5mo	$402,630	$156	51
14959 Topaz Blue St	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,174 (-9%)	12mo	$369,900	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-87,415
• Equity at exit: $70,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-133,123
• Equity at exit: $54,076

Cash invested: $109,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $361,300 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 962
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$491 /mo · $5,888/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,434

Max offer price $333,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-275	+0% $-411	+5% $-546	+10% $-682
Rent	-10% $-641	-5% $-526	+0% $-411	+5% $-295	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-311	base $-411	+0.5pp $-512	+1.0pp $-616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,130
• Closing costs: $11,776
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	120d	1	0.33mi
13191 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	84d	1	0.89mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	120d	1	0.90mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	113d	1	1.03mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Columbia plan (new construction)Located in Wimauma, FL
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2389 (per plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard included kitchen (plan features)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $349,990 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $349,990 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $349,990 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $349,990 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $349,990 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 119 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 118 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 117 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 116 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 115 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 114 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 113 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 112 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 111 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 110 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 109 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 108 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 107 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 105 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 104 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 103 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 102 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 99 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 97 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 96 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 94 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 92 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 91 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,987
• − Property taxes: −$5,888
• − Insurance: −$1,963
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,797
• − Management: −$2,797
• − Depreciation: −$11,419
• Taxable loss: −$11,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Replace blinds with energy-efficient window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve energy efficiency and attract renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install a smart lock — A smart lock can enhance security and convenience, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Columbia plan (new construction)Located in Wimauma, FL
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2389 (per plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard included kitchen (plan features)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living area