7422 Gatebriar Ct · Houston, TX 77489

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1981 7,766 sqft lot Est $180k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 7,766 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a cul-de-sac; Part of a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-362/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Willowridge H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,319 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 35% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-31 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $267 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,607 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15906 Willbriar Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	1mo	$182,500	$138	76
7458 Bahia Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+8%)	1mo	$228,000	$170	70
7610 Goudin Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,303 (+5%)	6mo	$220,000	$169	64
6913 Chasewood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+6%)	4mo	$99,000	$75	64
6647 Villarreal Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+2%)	0mo	$194,800	$154	62
15931 Kenbrook Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+10%)	7mo	$199,999	$147	61
7704 Sign St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,343 (+8%)	3mo	$165,000	$123	53
7716 Sign St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+6%)	7mo	$180,000	$137	52
7539 Maczali Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,404 (+13%)	0mo	$231,660	$165	52
6706 Castleview Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+10%)	2mo	$195,000	$143	50
7718 Sign St	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,343 (+8%)	2mo	$192,000	$143	50
7732 Ellis Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (+9%)	6mo	$195,000	$145	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,793
• Equity at exit: $49,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-14,818
• Equity at exit: $56,102

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,914/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $184,668

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	19d	1	0.24mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	5d	1	0.33mi
16211 Corsair Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,813	$1.59	24d	1	1.11mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,327	$1.29	10d	1	1.13mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,292	$1.26	5d	1	1.13mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16489 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,317	$1.28	43d	1	1.13mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,284	$1.25	2d	1	1.13mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16465 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,524	$1.13	43d	1	1.13mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,481	$1.10	2d	1	1.13mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,513	$1.12	10d	1	1.13mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	12d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,914 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,914 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,914
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$848
• After-tax cash flow: $486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-03 Rental Removed — HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,914 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.