5651 Hooper Rd · Weldon, CA 93283

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 189 Days on market

Built 1966 0.29 ac lot $163/sqft · 87% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully remodeled 3 bed / 1 bath home turn-key & move-in ready!Discover this charming starter home, freshly updated with new flooring, paint and a modern kitchen featuring a brand-new stove. Enjoy the comfort of a window A/C units, a covered carport for parking, and low-maintenance gravel landscaping perfect for easy living. This affordable and updated gem is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a rental-ready property.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Covered carport
• Window a/c units

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WINDOW A/C UNITS
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $125k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,900
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 86.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5585 Shoffstall Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	750 (-2%)	13mo	$65,000	$87	76
5470 Isabel Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-6%)	4mo	$75,000	$104	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $67,699
• Equity at exit: $100,562

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $188,573
• Equity at exit: $205,203

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93283

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    price $125,000 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bed / 1 bath home turn-key & move-in ready!Discover this charming starter home, freshly updated with new flooring, paint and a modern kitchen featuring a brand-new stove. Enjoy the comfort of a window A/C units, a covered carport for parking, and low-maintenance gravel landscaping perfect for easy living. This affordable and updated gem is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a rental-ready property.

17. 2026-02-17
    price $135,000 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bed / 1 bath home turn-key & move-in ready!Discover this charming starter home, freshly updated with new flooring, paint and a modern kitchen featuring a brand-new stove. Enjoy the comfort of a window A/C units, a covered carport for parking, and low-maintenance gravel landscaping perfect for easy living. This affordable and updated gem is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a rental-ready property.

18. 2025-12-19
    price $145,000 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bed / 1 bath home turn-key & move-in ready!Discover this charming starter home, freshly updated with new flooring, paint and a modern kitchen featuring a brand-new stove. Enjoy the comfort of a window A/C units, a covered carport for parking, and low-maintenance gravel landscaping perfect for easy living. This affordable and updated gem is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a rental-ready property.

19. 2025-12-10
    listed $150,000 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bed / 1 bath home turn-key & move-in ready!Discover this charming starter home, freshly updated with new flooring, paint and a modern kitchen featuring a brand-new stove. Enjoy the comfort of a window A/C units, a covered carport for parking, and low-maintenance gravel landscaping perfect for easy living. This affordable and updated gem is a great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a rental-ready property.

20. 2025-07-30
    soldstatus $34,000 Closed 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Why rent when you can own 768 sq ft of vintage charm (plus a 360 sq ft enclosed porch for bonus vibes) on just over a quarter acre of fully fenced land with mountain views? This 1 bed, 1 bath mobile home isn't brand new. .. Sure, it might need a little TLC (read: elbow grease), but the bones are there and the possibilities are wide open. Whether you're looking to simplify, start fresh, or test your DIY mettle, this property offers: A carport for your noble steed (or sedan)Fully fenced yard for privacy, pets, or that free-range lifestyle. Big mountain views and even bigger potential. Affordable, adorable (with a little imagination), and just quirky enough to make your friends jealous. Come see it before someone else with a vision and a toolbelt beats you to it!

21. 2025-05-20
    status Pending 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Why rent when you can own 768 sq ft of vintage charm (plus a 360 sq ft enclosed porch for bonus vibes) on just over a quarter acre of fully fenced land with mountain views? This 1 bed, 1 bath mobile home isn't brand new. .. Sure, it might need a little TLC (read: elbow grease), but the bones are there and the possibilities are wide open. Whether you're looking to simplify, start fresh, or test your DIY mettle, this property offers: A carport for your noble steed (or sedan)Fully fenced yard for privacy, pets, or that free-range lifestyle. Big mountain views and even bigger potential. Affordable, adorable (with a little imagination), and just quirky enough to make your friends jealous. Come see it before someone else with a vision and a toolbelt beats you to it!

22. 2025-05-15
    listed $34,000 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Why rent when you can own 768 sq ft of vintage charm (plus a 360 sq ft enclosed porch for bonus vibes) on just over a quarter acre of fully fenced land with mountain views? This 1 bed, 1 bath mobile home isn't brand new. .. Sure, it might need a little TLC (read: elbow grease), but the bones are there and the possibilities are wide open. Whether you're looking to simplify, start fresh, or test your DIY mettle, this property offers: A carport for your noble steed (or sedan)Fully fenced yard for privacy, pets, or that free-range lifestyle. Big mountain views and even bigger potential. Affordable, adorable (with a little imagination), and just quirky enough to make your friends jealous. Come see it before someone else with a vision and a toolbelt beats you to it!

23. 2005-01-19
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 86.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$0
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weldon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,129

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 468.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $125,000 GEMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $135,000 GEMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $145,000 GEMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $150,000 GEMLS
• 2025-07-30 Sold (MLS) $34,000 SSMLS
• 2025-05-20 Pending — SSMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $34,000 SSMLS
• 2005-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $509 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.