Tucson Plan · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$178,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Dolce Vita, a 55+ age-qualified active community, where you will find your dream home. We have a stunning 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1179 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, plank floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts laminate countertops, stainless steel appliances, and custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features like dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Outside, you will enjoy a private backyard oasis with low-maintenance landscaping. Dolce Vita reside

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Premium amenities
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• PREMIUM AMENITIES
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3301 S Goldfield Rd, Apache Junction, AZ 85119
• Financial info: List price $178,900

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home — Tucson floor plan; Single-story (plan)
• Exterior features: 1179 living area (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Virtual tour available

🏗️ New construction. The $178,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $133,227.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $650 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $921 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,799 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.93%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,227
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3301 S Goldfield Rd #4066	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-3%)	2mo	$140,000	$123	90
3301 S Goldfield Rd #4053	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,253 (+6%)	7mo	$225,000	$180	74
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+9%)	14mo	$165,000	$129	74
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2034	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+15%)	4mo	$155,000	$115	72
3301 S Goldfield Rd #6050	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,341 (+14%)	7mo	$189,900	$142	71
2400 E Baseline Ave #81	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	12mo	$129,000	$112	52
2400 E Baseline Ave #94	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-6%)	7mo	$125,000	$113	51
3355 S Cortez Rd #66	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,260 (+7%)	7mo	$109,000	$87	47
2400 E Baseline Ave #7	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-5%)	15mo	$126,000	$113	46
2400 E Baseline Ave #309	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+10%)	1mo	$131,000	$101	44
2400 E Baseline Ave #112	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-10%)	15mo	$112,300	$106	36
2400 E Baseline Ave #182	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	10mo	$58,500	$44	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,050
• Equity at exit: $19,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $57,067
• Equity at exit: $11,519

Cash invested: $37,304 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$699
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$167 /mo · $1,998/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $133,227

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,307
• Closing costs: $3,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	24d	1	0.78mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	11d	1	0.96mi
1540 E 25th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,900 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $178,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $178,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,900 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,463
• − Property taxes: −$1,998
• − Insurance: −$666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$3,876
• Taxable income: $6,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $6,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B