1613 Lemmon St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$24,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 686 sqft · Townhouse public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1880 Est $20k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REAL ESTATE AUCTION ON SITE TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2019 AT 12:00 NOON. List price is suggested opening bid only. $2,500 cashier's check deposit required to bid. Home is 1 of 10 rental properties on block being auctioned same day. House is currently rented for $700/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Built 1880
• Listed 84 days

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO PARKS
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Year built recorded by assessor
• Construction: Brick exterior; Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: End of row townhouse; Brick construction; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $935 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 51.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 79% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 425 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 160.96%
• DSCR: 8.16
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $19,894
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1613 Lemmon St	0.00mi	2/1.0	686 (0%)	1mo	$20,000	$29	99
1611 Lemmon St	0.00mi	2/1.0	686 (0%)	1mo	$20,000	$29	99
1609 Lemmon St	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	686 (0%)	1mo	$20,000	$29	94
1605 Lemmon St	0.01mi	2/3.0	686 (0%)	1mo	$20,000	$29	91
1610 Lemmon St	0.01mi	2/1.0	744 (+8%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	85
1612 Lemmon St	0.01mi	2/1.0	744 (+8%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	85
1608 Lemmon St	0.01mi	2/1.0	744 (+8%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	85
1606 Lemmon St	0.01mi	2/1.0	744 (+8%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	85
1926 Wilhelm St	0.29mi	2/1.0	684 (-0%)	7mo	$7,500	$11	80
1604 Lemmon St	0.01mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (+8%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	80
1406 Lemmon St	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	720 (+5%)	8mo	$155,000	$215	71
847 Reinhart St	0.71mi	2/2.0	624 (-9%)	3mo	$160,000	$256	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.98×
• Total profit: $62,588
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.38×
• Total profit: $162,977
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $292

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $949	-5% $942	+0% $935	+5% $928	+10% $921
Rent	-10% $819	-5% $877	+0% $935	+5% $993	+10% $1,052
Rate	-1.0pp $948	-0.5pp $942	base $935	+0.5pp $929	+1.0pp $922

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1712 W Lombard St #4 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	550	$900	$1.64	45d	1	0.07mi
28 N Norris St Baltimore, MD	1.0	2.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	45d	1	0.27mi
48 S Carrollton Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	670	$1,600	$2.39	45d	1	0.34mi
101 N Schroeder St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,588	$2.50	0d	11	0.59mi
709 N Carrollton Ave Unit 1A Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	500	$800	$1.60	18d	1	0.83mi
121 S Fremont Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	582	$2,100	$3.61	22d	5	0.85mi
725 W Pratt St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	584	$1,925	$3.29	0d	8	0.88mi
1339 W Lafayette Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	14d	1	0.90mi
910 N Arlington Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	551	$999	$1.81	19d	1	1.02mi
519 W Pratt St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	576	$1,400	$2.43	4d	2	1.07mi
511 W Pratt St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$3,455	$3.74	0d	10	1.10mi
410 W Lombard St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	686	$1,423	$2.07	0d	6	1.14mi
318 N Paca St Unit 9 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	45d	1	1.20mi
318 N Paca St Unit 10 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	23d	1	1.20mi
1 S Eutaw St Unit 1BR Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	0d	1	1.21mi
301 W Lombard St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0–2.0	499	$1,780	$3.57	0d	29	1.22mi
11 S Eutaw St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,146	$2.10	0d	12	1.23mi
300 W Redwood St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	579	$2,400	$4.15	0d	1	1.25mi
300 W Lombard St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	686	$1,850	$2.69	0d	8	1.25mi
506 W Franklin St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	415	$925	$2.23	25d	1	1.26mi
305 W Fayette St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,640	$1.83	45d	1	1.27mi
8 N Howard St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1433	$3,600	$2.51	3d	36	1.27mi
300 W Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–3.0	1267	$1,865	$1.47	0d	8	1.27mi
1719 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	540	$1,200	$2.22	19d	1	1.32mi
319 W Franklin St Unit 301-0506 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	708	$1,350	$1.91	16d	1	1.33mi
628 N Eutaw St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,605	$1.95	0d	8	1.35mi
301 W Franklin St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	586	$1,600	$2.73	14d	5	1.36mi
301 W Franklin St Unit SJ-0411 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	551	$1,450	$2.63	45d	1	1.36mi
301 W Franklin St Unit SJ-0506 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	708	$1,500	$2.12	45d	1	1.36mi
306 W Franklin St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	733	$1,822	$2.48	4d	5	1.37mi
1306 McCulloh St #1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	45d	1	1.40mi
305 W Monument St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,000	$2.01	0d	5	1.41mi
225 Park Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	588	$1,535	$2.61	25d	1	1.42mi
101 W Fayette St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	555	$1,800	$3.24	6d	26	1.42mi
600 N Howard St Unit 102 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	550	$1,465	$2.66	45d	1	1.43mi
600 N Howard St Unit 502 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	550	$1,650	$3.00	45d	1	1.43mi
600 N Howard St Unit 402 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	550	$1,565	$2.85	45d	1	1.43mi
600 N Howard St Unit 302 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	453	$1,565	$3.45	6d	1	1.43mi
117 W Saratoga St Unit 2F Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	45d	1	1.45mi
117 W Saratoga St Unit 4F Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$1,195	$1.84	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $24,900
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $29,900 Active
4. 2025-11-07
   soldstatus $500,000
5. 2020-01-27
   soldstatus $212,000
6. 2019-12-31
   soldstatus $21,200 Closed 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   REAL ESTATE AUCTION ON SITE TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2019 AT 12:00 NOON. List price is suggested opening bid only. $2,500 cashier's check deposit required to bid. Home is 1 of 10 rental properties on block being auctioned same day. House is currently rented for $700/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

7. 2019-11-05
   status Pending 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   REAL ESTATE AUCTION ON SITE TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2019 AT 12:00 NOON. List price is suggested opening bid only. $2,500 cashier's check deposit required to bid. Home is 1 of 10 rental properties on block being auctioned same day. House is currently rented for $700/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

8. 2019-09-27
   listed $10,000 Active 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   REAL ESTATE AUCTION ON SITE TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2019 AT 12:00 NOON. List price is suggested opening bid only. $2,500 cashier's check deposit required to bid. Home is 1 of 10 rental properties on block being auctioned same day. House is currently rented for $700/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $11,556
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,773
• After-tax cash flow: $8,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+149.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $24,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-31 Sold (MLS) $21,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-27 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,080 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.