Rowan Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

The Rowan - Efficient Design, Thoughtful Flow, and Everyday ComfortThe Rowan is a charming single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage across 1,344 square feet of smartly designed living space-perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for low-maintenance living with modern style. Open Concept Living Made EasyStep through the entrance foyer into an open-concept living area where a spacious family room connects effortlessly to the L-shaped kitchen with adjacent breakfast area, complete with ample counter space and natural flow for everyday life or entertaining. Private Primary RetreatTucked at the back of the home, the primary bedroom provides a p

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Walk in closet
• Walk in shower

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE PRIMARY RETREAT
• WALK IN SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSET
• OPTIONAL OUTDOOR LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named Rowan; Plan inventory type

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,344

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,999.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-508 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,089 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.26%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,999
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -16.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13724 Scarlett Song Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	14mo	$265,000	$197	78
503 Blanco Woods Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	3mo	$269,900	$208	76
101 Bandera Woods Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+12%)	1mo	$254,000	$169	73
709 Lavaca Loop	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	2mo	$245,000	$178	73
13716 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+9%)	7mo	$264,990	$180	72
25609 Flora Bella Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+9%)	4mo	$279,990	$190	72
13705 Scarlett Song Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+9%)	10mo	$269,990	$184	68
620 Lavaca Loop	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+3%)	10mo	$259,999	$189	64
125 Blue Ridge Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,262 (-6%)	3mo	$239,000	$189	54
212 Valley Run Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+8%)	3mo	$270,000	$187	52
18432 Cloudmore Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	9mo	$225,000	$185	52
18409 Weatherby Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+10%)	13mo	$220,800	$149	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $131,281
• Equity at exit: $270,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $412,610
• Equity at exit: $582,832

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $226,444

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-301	-5% $-405	+0% $-508	+5% $-612	+10% $-716
Rent	-10% $-665	-5% $-587	+0% $-508	+5% $-430	+10% $-352
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-432	base $-508	+0.5pp $-586	+1.0pp $-665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.16mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.26mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	3d	6	0.46mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.60mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	3d	1	0.71mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.78mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	5d	1	0.78mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.78mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	5d	1	0.84mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	5d	1	0.86mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	13d	1	0.89mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.91mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.93mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	21d	1	0.94mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.96mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	1.04mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	3d	1	1.04mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	1.05mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	12d	1	1.11mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	4d	1	1.17mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.18mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	1.22mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	1.22mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	5d	1	1.23mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	20d	1	1.25mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	3d	1	1.31mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	1.37mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	1.38mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	1.39mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	5d	1	1.45mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	1.46mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $289,990 Active 1459-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$11,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,775
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B