2159 E Harley St · Hernando, FL 34453

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2005 0.98 ac lot Est $212k · 25% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the freedom of country-style living with this double-wide located on a spacious lot in Hercala Acres. With no HOA or deed restrictions, this property offers plenty of flexibility for parking, storage, and outdoor living. The home welcomes you with a large front deck that provides a comfortable spot to relax and enjoy the natural surroundings. A 42-foot covered carport runs along the back of the home, offering ample covered parking for multiple vehicles and convenient access to the house. A standout feature of the property is the 18 x 30 metal garage built on a concrete slab, great for securely parking a vehicle, storing tools and equipment, or creating a workshop space. There is plent

Key facts

• Metal garage
• Covered carport
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NO HOA
• LARGE FRONT DECK
• COVERED CARPORT
• METAL GARAGE
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces total; 1-car garage; Attached carport; Detached parking options; Circular paved driveway; Driveway (paved and unpaved listed)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Deck; Level, rectangular lot; Paved road frontage; Public and private maintained road access; Subdivision: Hercala Acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($327/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 427 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $218k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,738 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2615 E Monte Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-13%)	3mo	$185,000	$118	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,279
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-34,005
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34453

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,934/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,103

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $102	+0% $27	+5% $-48	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-57	+0% $27	+5% $112	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $95	base $27	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1471 E Saint James Loop Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,700	$1.38	23d	1	0.69mi
2620 E Newhaven St Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	23d	1	0.90mi
2858 E Marcia St Inverness, FL	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,500	$1.40	23d	1	1.00mi
2961 E Brigadoon Ct Hernando, FL	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,300	$1.42	23d	1	1.29mi
790 E Gilchrist Ct Unit 2B Hernando, FL	2.0	2.5	1320	$2,000	$1.52	23d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-03-06
    listed $265,000 Active
17. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $217,500
18. 2004-07-09
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,934 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,934
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,024
• After-tax cash flow: $1,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,621
• Household income: $57,568
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 240.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.32%
• Current HPI: 291.8965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2689.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $265,000 RACC
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $217,500 Public Records
• 2004-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,934 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.