9423 Gulf Shore Ter · Ellenton, FL 34219

$283,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,241 sqft · Land · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 2,801 sqft lot $274/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 9423 Gulf Shore Ter—an inviting two-story residence with excellent curb appeal and a clean, modern interior designed for easy Florida living. The home features an open-concept main level with large-format tile flooring, recessed lighting, and a bright, airy feel throughout the spacious living and dining areas. At the heart of the home, the contemporary kitchen shines with crisp white cabinetry, a large center island with breakfast bar, and stainless steel appliances, plenty of prep space and storage—perfect for everyday meals or entertaining. Step outside to enjoy low-maintenance landscaping and a welcoming front entry, plus the convenience of an attached 2-car g

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Large center island
• $274 HOA

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• LARGE-FORMAT TILE FLOORING
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, Townhouse; Zoning: MPUD; Lot approx. 0.06 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Kai Connected, LLC; Seaire Master Homeowners Association); Monthly HOA fee of $135; additional quarterly association fee of $418; Association approval required; Pets allowed (weight effectively unrestricted)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; East-facing entry
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of Parrish Lakes community
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Stone countertops; Security system (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet on upper level; Other laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $283k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $257,530 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,335
• Equity at exit: $42,196

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-60,257
• Equity at exit: $24,469

Cash invested: $79,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,322/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$274
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $283,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $219	+0% $139	+5% $59	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $25	+0% $139	+5% $254	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $211	base $139	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,750
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	2d	32	0.18mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	24d	1	0.26mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.28mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	24d	1	0.32mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	24d	1	0.34mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.46mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	15d	1	0.57mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	22d	1	0.68mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	22d	1	0.69mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	0.76mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	4d	1	0.81mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	4d	1	0.83mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	4d	1	1.04mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	24d	1	1.08mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	11d	1	1.09mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	4d	1	1.15mi
8330 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2473	$2,900	$1.17	16d	1	1.16mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	4d	1	1.16mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	24d	1	1.18mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	20d	1	1.42mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	22d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $274 · $3,288/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $283,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $283,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $288,000
16. 2026-04-30
    price $297,000
17. 2026-04-16
    price $306,000
18. 2026-04-02
    price $315,000
19. 2026-03-19
    listed $323,000 Active
20. 2025-08-04
    soldstatus $2,003,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$3,322
• − Insurance: −$1,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,785
• − Management: −$2,785
• − HOA: −$3,288
• − Depreciation: −$8,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$688
• After-tax cash flow: $2,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-85.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $288,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $297,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $306,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $323,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $2,003,000 Public Records