6430 W Van Buren St #10 · Phoenix, AZ 85043

$35,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 225 Days on market

Built 1980 ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper ready for a family willing to take on the work or investor to flip it!

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Built 1980
• Listed 224 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $550 monthly; No association fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: 2 uncovered parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Steel frame; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Grass front yard; Grass back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling heating
• Interior features: Disposal; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Tolleson Union High School District (4288) (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #188 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Linda High School (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 1,975 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.67%
• DSCR: 7.35
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
618 N 68th Ln N #148	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	21mo	$127,000	$106	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $63,345
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.33×
• Total profit: $130,654
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85043

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $1,165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6832 W Fillmore St #174 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,650	$1.96	1d	1	0.41mi
6441 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	733	$1,231	$1.68	1d	18	0.82mi
6515 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,738	$1.75	1d	7	0.83mi
6405 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	592	$1,192	$2.01	1d	36	0.84mi
6231 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	752	$1,681	$2.23	1d	49	0.84mi
5775 W Roosevelt St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	560	$1,680	$3.00	1d	20	0.85mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	952	$1,867	$1.96	24d	1	0.92mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,955	$1.98	1d	38	0.92mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$1,593	$1.53	1d	1	0.96mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Unit M 12-106 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$2,045	$1.96	1d	1	0.99mi
5821 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$2,324	$2.33	1d	11	1.10mi
7077 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,620	$2.07	1d	14	1.11mi
1653 N 69th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,949	$1.90	1d	1	1.16mi
7205 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1291	$1,940	$1.50	1d	6	1.23mi
1415 S 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,450	$1.45	1d	1	1.26mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Apt 2050 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,170	$1.50	20d	1	1.29mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 1039 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,468	$1.88	1d	1	1.32mi
6343 W Cypress St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,780	$1.39	1d	1	1.33mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 1021 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,508	$1.71	3d	1	1.34mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 2064 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,388	$1.78	1d	1	1.34mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 2023 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,270	$1.44	22d	1	1.35mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 1101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	760	$1,378	$1.81	1d	1	1.36mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Apt 1117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	760	$1,210	$1.59	20d	1	1.37mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 2024 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,488	$1.69	8d	1	1.37mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 1003 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,508	$1.71	1d	1	1.37mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 2090 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	760	$1,358	$1.79	1d	1	1.39mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Apt 1150 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,408	$1.81	1d	1	1.40mi
5535 W McDowell Rd Unit 1095 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	760	$1,140	$1.50	19d	1	1.40mi
5414 W Lynwood St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,295	$1.40	12d	1	1.49mi
5414 W Lynwood St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,295	$1.40	15d	1	1.49mi
5416 W Lynwood St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	972	$1,550	$1.59	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    price $35,000
16. 2025-11-20
    price $45,000
17. 2025-11-05
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $14,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,426
• After-tax cash flow: $10,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tolleson Union High School District (4288)
• NCES district ID: 0408520
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $51,925
• Composite: 16.41/100
• National rank: #9193
• State rank: #188 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,331
• Household income: $78,257
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 11% Black 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.22%
• Current HPI: 309.495
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $55,000 ARMLS