3408 Ogden · Lucerne, CA 95458

$119,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1930 0.26 ac lot Est $231k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Positioned on a spacious collection of five parcels totaling nearly 3/4 of an acre, 3408 Ogden Place in Lucerne presents a unique opportunity to own a sizeable piece of property in a convenient residential setting close to the lake. Located just minutes from Lucerne Elementary School, local shopping, dining, and Highway 20 access, the property offers a blend of space, accessibility, and future potential that is increasingly hard to find in the area. Built in 1930, the home features approximately 1,137 square feet with two bedrooms, one bathroom, and additional bonus space that may offer flexible use possibilities. The expansive parcel configuration provides added privacy, extra room for par

Key facts

• Close to the lake
• Highway 20 access
• Dining

Tags

• NEARLY 3/4 OF AN ACRE
• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• DINING
• HIGHWAY 20 ACCESS
• EXPANSIVE PARCEL CONFIGURATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number: 034234150000; Lot size source: Assessor's data; Living area source: Assessor's data; Property considered additional parcels: yes; Access via city streets; road surface unpaved/gravel; provided directions available
• Financial info: Total units: 1; Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Community features include watersports, hiking, fishing, lake access, rural setting, and street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (combination)
• Utilities: Standard electric service with 220V in laundry; Public sewer; Sewer, electricity, and water connected
• Home design: House; Single-story; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU); No common walls; Zoning: R1
• Construction: Wood construction; Asphalt roof; No foundation details listed; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Patio; No fencing; Lot described as 0-1 Unit/Acre; Multiple additional parcel numbers associated with the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Eating area located in the family room; Appliances included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower
• Interior features: One-level home with street-level entry; Family room; Property listed as fixer condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.5% in Lucerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#656 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lucerne Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,228 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucerne Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 299 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $120k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,915 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,811
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3332 Country Club Dr	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,100 (-3%)	13mo	$209,000	$190	76
4041 Kensington Way	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,170 (+3%)	8mo	$160,000	$137	55
6394 14th Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,250 (+10%)	14mo	$265,000	$212	54
6966 Oak View Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-7%)	4mo	$222,000	$210	51
6802 Doris Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (+10%)	2mo	$360,000	$287	48
6404 14th Ave	0.27mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,248 (+10%)	16mo	$250,000	$200	45
4080 Kensington Way	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,276 (+12%)	5mo	$283,000	$222	43
4088 Country Club Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0	984 (-14%)	12mo	$200,000	$203	37
6828 Frontage Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0	988 (-13%)	11mo	$180,000	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $14,550
• Equity at exit: $28,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $52,856
• Equity at exit: $28,962

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95458

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $414	+0% $380	+5% $346	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $323	+0% $380	+5% $438	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $440	-0.5pp $411	base $380	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4184 Sherwood Ct Lucerne, CA	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,450	$1.19	22d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,500 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,500 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $119,500 Active
18. 2025-10-31
    historical
19. 2025-07-31
    price $169,500
20. 2025-05-06
    price $175,000
21. 2025-04-16
    listed $185,000 Active
22. 2004-12-22
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $2,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $3,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0623040
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 21.37/100
• National rank: #13649
• State rank: #1228 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #20362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lucerne, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,365

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.12%
• Current HPI: 194.4298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+99.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $119,500 CRMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $169,500 CRMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,065 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.