110 4th Sinaloa St · Sonora, TX 76950

$39,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1999 5,400 sqft lot $25/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity with tons of potential! This 1,568 sq. ft. double wide sits on a 5,400 sq. ft. lot and is ready for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're looking for a fixer-upper, rental property, or your next project, this property offers plenty of possibilities. Seller is motivated—bring any and all offers!

Key facts

• 5,400 sq ft lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Subdivision: Sinaloa
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Interior lot; Paved road frontage on a city street; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in TX, #2,963 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonora ISD (town): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #189 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sonora El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 376 students, 54% FRL); Sonora Secondary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 299 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Sutton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.58%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,823
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -69.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $44,883
• Equity at exit: $19,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.52×
• Total profit: $103,954
• Equity at exit: $30,869

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76950

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,484/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $436

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $628	-5% $617	+0% $606	+5% $595	+10% $584
Rent	-10% $511	-5% $558	+0% $606	+5% $653	+10% $701
Rate	-1.0pp $626	-0.5pp $616	base $606	+0.5pp $596	+1.0pp $586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $39,000 Active 343-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$1,484
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $7,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,711
• After-tax cash flow: $5,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840800
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,215
• Composite: 42.39/100
• National rank: #3239
• State rank: #189 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonora

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #2963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,490

Population outlook (Sutton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,727 people
• By 2030: 3,569 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 3,220 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 2,868 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 2,070 · -44.5%
• By 2100: 1,313 · -64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 36% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.3% · R 83.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+57.8 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+49.8 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 119.0271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $39,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,484 · +29.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.