173 Dereks Way · Lyndon, VT 05851

$125,000

1 bd · None ba · 691 sqft · Other public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1975 0.75 ac lot $181/sqft · 19% below area Est $225k · 44% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your perfect base camp in the NEK awaits! Tucked away in the rolling hills of East Lyndon, off a quiet class 4 road you'll find this simply elegant little retreat. Stone walls and maple trees frame partial views to the south and east. Hand crafted from local timber, the structure is very well built, a true homage to the Vermont woods. Downstairs is a simple open room with plenty of space for a camp kitchen and hanging out. Upstairs is a large, unfinished, second floor, making a nice sleeping loft. The highlight here is certainly the large, covered porch, it's absolutely perfect. Easy access to a network of class 4 roads and legal trails right out the door combined with close proximity to Kingdom Trails, The Lyndon Outing Club, and Burke Mountain make this a recreational paradise.

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Rolling hills
• Hand crafted

Tags

• ROLLING HILLS
• STONE WALLS
• MAPLE TREES
• HAND CRAFTED
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• NETWORK OF CLASS 4 ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.53%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,806
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -44.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $93,174
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $254,520
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 244 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
16. 2025-09-30
    listed $125,000 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Your perfect base camp in the NEK awaits! Tucked away in the rolling hills of East Lyndon, off a quiet class 4 road you'll find this simply elegant little retreat. Stone walls and maple trees frame partial views to the south and east. Hand crafted from local timber, the structure is very well built, a true homage to the Vermont woods. Downstairs is a simple open room with plenty of space for a camp kitchen and hanging out. Upstairs is a large, unfinished, second floor, making a nice sleeping loft. The highlight here is certainly the large, covered porch, it's absolutely perfect. Easy access to a network of class 4 roads and legal trails right out the door combined with close proximity to Kingdom Trails, The Lyndon Outing Club, and Burke Mountain make this a recreational paradise.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$913/yr (+$76/mo · 166.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$681
• After-tax cash flow: $4,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lyndon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-30 Listed $125,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $550 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.