135 #97 Hillview Dr #97 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$85,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,117 sqft · Townhouse · 504 Days on market

Built 1975 Average condition $76/sqft · 22% below area Est $109k · 22% under $317/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful condo is being offered fully furnished! There is a ton of potential for this condo!! Could be a short term rental!! Lodge Themed 2 bedroom and 1.5 bath Lakewood Hills! These condos have their very own private pool. Great Location walking distance to most area city center amenities! Come take a look!

Key facts

• Private pool
• $317 HOA
• Parking

Tags

• PRIVATE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $85k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $183 of equity ($588 loan paydown + $-405 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 504 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 504 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.06%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,969
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -22.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr #101	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$67	97
135 Hillview Dr #116	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	2mo	$98,000	$88	97
135 Hillview Dr #6	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,133 (+1%)	8mo	$98,000	$86	89
135 Hillview #52	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	14mo	$89,000	$80	87
135 Hillview #32	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	18mo	$68,000	$61	83
135 Hillview Dr #82	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,179 (+6%)	10mo	$79,900	$68	80
120 Shorthaven Ln	0.24mi	2/1.5	1,102 (-1%)	13mo	$125,000	$113	76
134 Richwood Dr #3	0.40mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,095 (-2%)	1mo	$85,000	$78	70
118 Richwood Dr #49	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,218 (+9%)	2mo	$80,000	$66	67
104 Chelsea Dr #42	0.61mi	2/2.5	1,066 (-5%)	14mo	$99,000	$93	48
134 Richwood Dr #12	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,272 (+14%)	13mo	$132,500	$104	46
134 Richwood Dr #11	0.40mi	1/2.0 (-1)	970 (-13%)	18mo	$89,500	$92	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $38,882
• Equity at exit: $22,676

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $99,244
• Equity at exit: $25,705

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$317
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $734	-5% $705	+0% $676	+5% $646	+10% $617
Rent	-10% $518	-5% $597	+0% $676	+5% $755	+10% $834
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $697	base $676	+0.5pp $654	+1.0pp $631

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $317 · $3,804/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 504 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 503 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 502 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 501 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 500 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 498 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 497 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 494 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $85,000 Active 493 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Price Change 492 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Price Change 491 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Price Change 488 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Price Change 487 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricestatus $85,000 Price Change 486 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 486 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 485 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 484 DOM
18. 2026-02-15
    price $95,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    This beautiful condo is being offered fully furnished! There is a ton of potential for this condo!! Could be a short term rental!! Lodge Themed 2 bedroom and 1.5 bath Lakewood Hills! These condos have their very own private pool. Great Location walking distance to most area city center amenities! Come take a look!

19. 2025-09-27
    price $105,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    This beautiful condo is being offered fully furnished! There is a ton of potential for this condo!! Could be a short term rental!! Lodge Themed 2 bedroom and 1.5 bath Lakewood Hills! These condos have their very own private pool. Great Location walking distance to most area city center amenities! Come take a look!

20. 2025-01-31
    listed $106,000 New Listing 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    This beautiful condo is being offered fully furnished! There is a ton of potential for this condo!! Could be a short term rental!! Lodge Themed 2 bedroom and 1.5 bath Lakewood Hills! These condos have their very own private pool. Great Location walking distance to most area city center amenities! Come take a look!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$3,804
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $6,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This moderately rehabbed condo has average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance
• Both Replace worn bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures increase appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · Dated appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Replace worn bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures increase appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $105,000 CARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $106,000 CARMLS