401 W Greenwich Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1967 7,862 sqft lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $161k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice corner lot home! This four bedroom two bath home located in the peaceful town of Kearny, AZ is priced to sell. Many updates including new master shower, new guest bath surround, done all in ceramic tile and installed with new shower valves and plumbing, freshly laid ceramic tile throughout the home. Fresh paint inside and out. Large living room perfect for spending the evenings with your family. Attached covered carport with a storage shed. Back covered patio with privacy wall makes for the perfect spot to host BBQ's with family and friends. House is kept at the perfect temperature with a central AC/Gas package unit. Roof and AC are both approximately 7 years old. This house sits on a corner lot within walking distance to the local park. At this price, this one will not last long

Key facts

• New master shower
• Fresh paint
• Storage shed

Tags

• NEW MASTER SHOWER
• NEW GUEST BATH SURROUND
• CERAMIC TILE
• FRESH PAINT
• ATTACHED COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $165k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,832
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 2.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 W Hartford Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,260 (+2%)	4mo	$185,000	$147	88
336 W Greenwich Rd	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	5mo	$175,000	$140	88
329 W Fairhaven Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (+2%)	11mo	$210,000	$167	76
437 W Hartford Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,246 (+1%)	17mo	$114,000	$91	68
217 W Fairhaven Rd W	0.37mi	3/1.8 (-1)	1,232 (0%)	10mo	$230,000	$187	68
429 W Greenwich Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,293 (+5%)	16mo	$175,000	$135	63
426 W Essex Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (+12%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	62
215 W Greenwich Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,177 (-4%)	9mo	$173,000	$147	61
443 W Ivanhoe Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-6%)	11mo	$165,000	$142	59
173 W Jamestown Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,223 (-1%)	12mo	$218,500	$179	56
504 W Hartford Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (+11%)	14mo	$140,000	$102	51
610 S York Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (-10%)	3mo	$115,000	$103	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $106,733
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $300,869
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-02-08
    listed $165,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Nice corner lot home! This four bedroom two bath home located in the peaceful town of Kearny, AZ is priced to sell. Many updates including new master shower, new guest bath surround, done all in ceramic tile and installed with new shower valves and plumbing, freshly laid ceramic tile throughout the home. Fresh paint inside and out. Large living room perfect for spending the evenings with your family. Attached covered carport with a storage shed. Back covered patio with privacy wall makes for the perfect spot to host BBQ's with family and friends. House is kept at the perfect temperature with a central AC/Gas package unit. Roof and AC are both approximately 7 years old. This house sits on a corner lot within walking distance to the local park. At this price, this one will not last long

16. 2025-12-15
    historical
17. 2025-11-03
    status Active
18. 2025-10-31
    historical
19. 2025-10-28
    price $165,000
20. 2025-10-02
    price $167,900
21. 2025-09-03
    price $169,900
22. 2025-08-08
    price $174,000
23. 2025-05-24
    price $175,000
24. 2025-04-30
    listed $179,900 Active
25. 2018-11-21
    soldstatus $59,118
26. 2013-09-14
    historical
27. 2013-08-21
    listed $69,500 Active
28. 2013-07-06
    historical
29. 2013-03-06
    listed $69,500 Active
30. 2013-03-06
    historical
31. 2013-03-01
    listed $55,000 Active
32. 2012-12-27
    historical
33. 2012-05-21
    listed $80,000 Active
34. 1997-09-30
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 41.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $3,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $167,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $174,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2018-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $59,118 Public Records
• 2013-09-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-08-21 Listed $69,500 ARMLS
• 2013-07-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-03-06 Listed $69,500 ARMLS
• 2013-03-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-03-01 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2012-12-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-05-21 Listed $80,000 ARMLS
• 1997-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.