915 Turner St · Waco, TX 76704

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1930 7,057 sqft lot $49/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***Seen Better Days Special*** Prime investment opportunity! This property offers exceptional upside for fix-and-flip, BRRRR, or long-term buy-and-hold investors looking to tap into Waco’s thriving student rental market. Located near campus, this home sits in a high-demand area where rental need stays consistently strong due to proximity to McLane Stadium, academic buildings, athletic facilities, and popular student amenities. Ideal layout for modernization or reconfiguration to maximize bedrooms and rental income. Strong bones, solid lot, and excellent access to shopping, restaurants, downtown Waco, and major corridors. Perfect for investors seeking steady rental demand, high occupancy potential, and a proven value-add opportunity close to one of Texas’s most reliable campus housing markets. Bring your vision and your strong back, this flip is not for the faint of heart.

Key facts

• High demand area
• Strong bones
• Excellent access

Tags

• HIGH DEMAND AREA
• STRONG BONES
• SOLID LOT
• EXCELLENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $689 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,619/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 603% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.43%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,481
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -60.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Hood St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,332 (0%)	4mo	$232,400	$174	77
401 Mahon Hollow Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,291 (-3%)	2mo	$224,000	$174	75
803 Garrison St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,244 (-7%)	3mo	$198,500	$160	71
417 Turner St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+1%)	10mo	$240,000	$178	70
1500 J J Flewellen Rd	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,286 (-4%)	7mo	$82,500	$64	60
420 Mahon Hollow Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-10%)	10mo	$239,000	$201	59
1009 Dearborn St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,478 (+11%)	9mo	$209,500	$142	56
1106 Chestnut St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,204 (-10%)	9mo	$165,000	$137	56
301 Lorraine Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-0%)	9mo	$36,400	$27	55
621 Delano St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-6%)	1mo	$219,900	$175	55
909 Lenox St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+9%)	8mo	$228,999	$158	53
521 E Lee St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	9mo	$139,900	$117	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $33,467
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $86,107
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76704

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,666/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 Sherman St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	43d	1	0.17mi
1500 E James St Unit A Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1764	$2,750	$1.56	44d	1	0.23mi
609 Sherman St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,449	$1.41	20d	1	0.24mi
108 Choctaw Ct Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,600	$1.26	13d	1	0.30mi
825 Garrison St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,370	$1.33	13d	1	0.34mi
1107 Chestnut St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	928	$1,300	$1.40	20d	1	0.45mi
932 Dawson St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,449	$1.41	13d	1	0.47mi
412 Dearborn St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,000	$1.27	20d	1	0.50mi
1226 Chestnut St Unit A Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$925	$0.94	20d	1	0.60mi
916 Olive St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,475	$1.43	13d	1	0.63mi
1319 Tabor St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1234	$1,700	$1.38	13d	1	0.75mi
1013 Earle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,525	$1.48	20d	1	0.77mi
2017 Broadway St Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1247	$1,800	$1.44	43d	1	0.78mi
1008 E Pecan Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,350	$0.96	13d	1	0.81mi
215 Washington Ave Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	919	$1,737	$1.89	20d	1	0.90mi
1606 N 9th St Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1392	$1,525	$1.10	20d	1	1.20mi
1110 N 11th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,495	$1.28	20d	1	1.34mi
1104 N 11th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,650	$1.34	20d	1	1.34mi
1600 N 11th St Unit A Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,750	$1.44	43d	1	1.34mi
804 N 11th St Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,200	$1.43	20d	1	1.35mi
712 Proctor Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1184	$1,450	$1.22	20d	1	1.39mi
700 S 4th St Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,400	$1.57	13d	12	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $65,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $68,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $68,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $68,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-03-27
    price $70,000 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    ***Seen Better Days Special*** Prime investment opportunity! This property offers exceptional upside for fix-and-flip, BRRRR, or long-term buy-and-hold investors looking to tap into Waco’s thriving student rental market. Located near campus, this home sits in a high-demand area where rental need stays consistently strong due to proximity to McLane Stadium, academic buildings, athletic facilities, and popular student amenities. Ideal layout for modernization or reconfiguration to maximize bedrooms and rental income. Strong bones, solid lot, and excellent access to shopping, restaurants, downtown Waco, and major corridors. Perfect for investors seeking steady rental demand, high occupancy potential, and a proven value-add opportunity close to one of Texas’s most reliable campus housing markets. Bring your vision and your strong back, this flip is not for the faint of heart.

14. 2025-12-13
    listed $75,000 Active 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    ***Seen Better Days Special*** Prime investment opportunity! This property offers exceptional upside for fix-and-flip, BRRRR, or long-term buy-and-hold investors looking to tap into Waco’s thriving student rental market. Located near campus, this home sits in a high-demand area where rental need stays consistently strong due to proximity to McLane Stadium, academic buildings, athletic facilities, and popular student amenities. Ideal layout for modernization or reconfiguration to maximize bedrooms and rental income. Strong bones, solid lot, and excellent access to shopping, restaurants, downtown Waco, and major corridors. Perfect for investors seeking steady rental demand, high occupancy potential, and a proven value-add opportunity close to one of Texas’s most reliable campus housing markets. Bring your vision and your strong back, this flip is not for the faint of heart.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,666
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $7,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,872
• After-tax cash flow: $6,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,018
• Household income: $30,349
• Rent vs Own: 68.4% rent · 31.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 603.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% White 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.09%
• Current HPI: 181.8051
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $75,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,666 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.