518 Elena Ln · Highlands, TX 77562

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2004 10,040 sqft lot Est $186k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 518 Elena Lane in Highlands! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath 2004 single-wide mobile home offers a spacious split floor plan and sits on an approximately 10,000 SF lot. Recent improvements include a newer roof (approximately 2 years old), fresh interior and exterior paint, new exterior skirting, and a large 12x30 wood front deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you’ll find an open living area and kitchen area with granite countertops, stainless Samsung refrigerator, stove, microwave, and dishwasher, plus plenty of cabinet space. The private primary suite features a large bedroom, walk-in closet, granite double vanities, a soaking tub, and an updated

Key facts

• Central a/c and heat
• Newer roof
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• LARGE WOOD FRONT DECK
• GRANITE DOUBLE VANITIES
• UPDATED TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• UPDATED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTRAL A/C AND HEAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built in 2004
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Located in a subdivision; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Free‑standing range; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Den (first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Open living/dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 5.2% in Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#738 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.76%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,820
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Fig Orchard Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	6mo	$137,500	$113	57
622 Golden Bend Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	10mo	$169,000	$163	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $14,707
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $66,986
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77562

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $451/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 Julie Ln Highlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,750	$1.37	44d	1	0.64mi
305 Riverside St Highlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,600	$1.85	3d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,658/yr (+$222/mo · 589.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$451
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $5,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,312
• After-tax cash flow: $6,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Highlands

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #13697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highlands, TX
• City population: 9,805
• Population (ZIP): 9,805

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.57%
• Current HPI: 303.5126
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $169,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $451 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.