Is 18510 Athena Flower Dr in Fresno, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.5% cap rate and $-858/mo modeled cash flow at a $279,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 18510 Athena Flower Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,119/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 34.02

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.0/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Appreciation +4.0/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
Schools +1.8/10.0
DSCR +1.2/10.0

$279,990

18510 Athena Flower Dr · Fresno, TX 77545

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18510 Athena Flower Drive located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

Key facts

2 garage spots
Built 2026
Listed 86 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi

Loading POIs…

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,796.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-858 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (38.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (24.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $173k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,646 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.55%
Cash-on-cash: -6.23%
DSCR: 0.72
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $296,796
List price: $279,990
Delta: -5.66%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18546 Athena Flower Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+4%)	2mo	$282,990	$188	89
18503 Porta Marina Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+9%)	11mo	$307,990	$195	73
2602 Yellow Pear Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+1%)	13mo	$264,900	$182	56
2110 Acorn Glen Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-3%)	16mo	$215,000	$153	50
2346 Bright Sunrise Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+5%)	20mo	$210,000	$138	49
2106 Acorn Glen Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+9%)	13mo	$230,000	$145	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.0%
Equity multiple: -0.15×
Total profit: $-95,785
Equity at exit: $57,907

10-year hold

IRR: -36.5%
Equity multiple: -0.99×
Total profit: $-164,979
Equity at exit: $49,739

Cash invested: $83,103 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 8 active · 4 under contract
Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $285,445 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 50 d
This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +9.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.9%
Active inventory: 268
Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,119 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,556
Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,452/yr
Insurance: −$124
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$54
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
Net cashflow: $-858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,205

Max offer price $172,646

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-653	-5% $-755	+0% $-858	+5% $-961	+10% $-1,063
Rent	-10% $-1,025	-5% $-942	+0% $-858	+5% $-774	+10% $-691
Rate	-1.0pp $-709	-0.5pp $-782	base $-858	+0.5pp $-935	+1.0pp $-1,013

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,199
Closing costs: $8,904
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	48d	1	0.61mi
3122 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,711	$1.07	74d	1	1.14mi
3234 Dartmouth Field Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1718	$1,700	$0.99	24d	1	1.18mi
3235 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,601	$1.25	57d	1	1.19mi
3311 Jib Ct Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,700	$1.32	12d	1	1.26mi
3327 Jib Ct Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,040	$1.15	35d	1	1.30mi
1740 Trammel-Fresno Rd Fresno, TX	2.0	2.0	949	$2,000	$2.11	120d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Has association (Principal Mgmt)Annual association feeCommunity parkCurbs and gutters

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofSingle-story entry (all primary rooms listed on first floor)
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionSlab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioFence (back yard)Private yardSprinkler/irrigationSubdivision lotConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenGranite countersKitchen islandPantry
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 11Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 11
Flooring: CarpetTile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsSoaking tub and separate shower in primary bathDouble vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Has heating and cooling
Interior features: Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySelf-closing drawersSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/showerWindow treatmentsCeiling fansLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsENERGY STAR qualified appliancesInstant hot waterTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupUtility room (first floor) — 5 x 6

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $279,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $279,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $279,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $279,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $279,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $279,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $279,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $279,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $279,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $279,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $279,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $279,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $279,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $279,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $315,725 Active 68 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $315,725 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $315,725 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $315,725 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $315,725 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $315,725 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $315,725 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $315,725 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $315,725 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $315,725 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $315,725 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $315,725 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $315,725 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $315,725 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $315,725 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $315,725 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $315,725 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $315,725 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $315,725 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $315,725 Active 45 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $315,725 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $315,725 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $315,725 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $315,725 Active 41 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $315,725 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $315,725 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $315,725 Active 37 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $315,725 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $315,725 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $315,725 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $315,725 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $315,725 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $315,725 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $315,725 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $315,725 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $315,725 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,423
− Mortgage interest: −$16,625
− Property taxes: −$4,452
− Insurance: −$6,602
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
− Management: −$2,034
− HOA: −$648
− Depreciation: −$8,634
Taxable loss: −$15,607

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,746
After-tax cash flow: $-6,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Long Lake is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like painting and landscaping to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridgemont Early Literacy Center Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Willowridge H S F TX #1,389/1,632 Nat'l #13,991/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

Score: 62/100
State rank: #943
US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Fresno, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population: 26,236
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 26,236
Household income: $94,474
Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
Current HPI: 231.3921
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-07-01 Price Changed $315,725 HARMLS
2026-06-29 Listed $313,725 HARMLS
2026-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-04 Price Changed $311,725 HARMLS
2026-04-27 Listed $309,725 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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