25 Maillet Rd · Lunenburg, VT 05906

$76,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,612 sqft · Other public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1920 9,147 sqft lot $47/sqft · 27% below area Est $104k · 27% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Renovation Opportunity Awaits! Discover the potential of this cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath home, perfect for those looking to add their personal touch! From the welcoming covered porch, step into a functional laundry/mud room that leads to a spacious living area and eat-in kitchen, ideal for gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private bath, while a convenient 3/4 bath is just down the hall for guests. Imagine the possibilities with the generous second-floor bedroom featuring a cozy closet nook, ready for your creative vision. The interior is a blank canvas, awaiting your finishing touches - just add flooring, paint, and complete the trim work to make it your own! Outside, enjoy a partially fenced backyard that offers ample space for gardening and outdoor relaxation. Enjoy the benefits of town water, though a thorough septic inspection is needed, and be prepared to replace the metal tank. Don’t miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Laundry mud room
• Spacious living area

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• LAUNDRY MUD ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• 3/4 BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($529 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.13%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,467
• List price: $76,500
• Delta: -26.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $66,239
• Equity at exit: $68,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $175,121
• Equity at exit: $146,662

Cash invested: $21,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05906

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$401
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $731/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $625

Max offer price $76,500

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $417	+0% $395	+5% $373	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $350	+0% $395	+5% $439	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $433	-0.5pp $414	base $395	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,125
• Closing costs: $2,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,500 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,500 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,500 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,500 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,500 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,500 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,500 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $76,500 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,500 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,500 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,500 Active 186 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $76,500 Active 185 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,500 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,500 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,500 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,500 Active 179 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    price $76,500 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Charming Renovation Opportunity Awaits! Discover the potential of this cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath home, perfect for those looking to add their personal touch! From the welcoming covered porch, step into a functional laundry/mud room that leads to a spacious living area and eat-in kitchen, ideal for gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private bath, while a convenient 3/4 bath is just down the hall for guests. Imagine the possibilities with the generous second-floor bedroom featuring a cozy closet nook, ready for your creative vision. The interior is a blank canvas, awaiting your finishing touches - just add flooring, paint, and complete the trim work to make it your own! Outside, enjoy a partially fenced backyard that offers ample space for gardening and outdoor relaxation. Enjoy the benefits of town water, though a thorough septic inspection is needed, and be prepared to replace the metal tank. Don’t miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

18. 2026-03-24
    price $83,900 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Charming Renovation Opportunity Awaits! Discover the potential of this cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath home, perfect for those looking to add their personal touch! From the welcoming covered porch, step into a functional laundry/mud room that leads to a spacious living area and eat-in kitchen, ideal for gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private bath, while a convenient 3/4 bath is just down the hall for guests. Imagine the possibilities with the generous second-floor bedroom featuring a cozy closet nook, ready for your creative vision. The interior is a blank canvas, awaiting your finishing touches - just add flooring, paint, and complete the trim work to make it your own! Outside, enjoy a partially fenced backyard that offers ample space for gardening and outdoor relaxation. Enjoy the benefits of town water, though a thorough septic inspection is needed, and be prepared to replace the metal tank. Don’t miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

19. 2025-12-02
    listed $89,500 Active 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Charming Renovation Opportunity Awaits! Discover the potential of this cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath home, perfect for those looking to add their personal touch! From the welcoming covered porch, step into a functional laundry/mud room that leads to a spacious living area and eat-in kitchen, ideal for gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private bath, while a convenient 3/4 bath is just down the hall for guests. Imagine the possibilities with the generous second-floor bedroom featuring a cozy closet nook, ready for your creative vision. The interior is a blank canvas, awaiting your finishing touches - just add flooring, paint, and complete the trim work to make it your own! Outside, enjoy a partially fenced backyard that offers ample space for gardening and outdoor relaxation. Enjoy the benefits of town water, though a thorough septic inspection is needed, and be prepared to replace the metal tank. Don’t miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,092 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,285
• − Property taxes: −$731
• − Insurance: −$382
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,225
• Taxable income: $3,718
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$892
• After-tax cash flow: $3,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lunenburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lunenburg, VT
• Population (ZIP): 1,335

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,715 people
• By 2030: 5,396 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 4,680 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 4,025 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 3,104 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 2,590 · -54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Serbian 7% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: R (+16.0) · D 39.4% · R 55.4% · Other 5.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: -16.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+18.0 2012: D+13.4 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.89%
• Current HPI: 223.9474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $76,500 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $83,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $89,500 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $731 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.