40618 Balsam Run Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$274,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,000 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL MODERN BRAND NEW D. R. HORTON HOME IN MILL CREEK! Fantastic open concept interior layout, seamlessly connecting a spacious dining area to family room and delightful island kitchen. Your private retreat awaits in the thoughtfully positioned primary suite, offering a lovely bath and a huge walk-in closet. Gorgeous white kitchen cabinetry, luxurious quartz counters, and stainless steel appliances, including a gas range/stove! Also features a Smart Home System! Great outdoor space equipped with front sprinklers, both front and back sod, and meticulously designed full front landscaping, ensuring a lush and inviting exterior. Great backyard space! Hurry and call today!! Mill Creek off

Key facts

• Huge walk-in closet
• Spacious dining area
• 6,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• DELIGHTFUL ISLAND KITCHEN
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETRY
• LUXURIOUS QUARTZ COUNTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Inframark); Annual association fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); West-facing
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14x12); Three additional bedrooms on first floor (each 10x10); One bedroom/bonus space on first floor (10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Walk-in pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Instant hot water; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $275,826.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-968/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $239,048 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,826
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -0.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40654 Balsam Run Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+0%)	0mo	$287,490	$183	90
40838 Hawthorne Glades St	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,573 (0%)	5mo	$253,990	$161	90
40821 Hawthorne Glades St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,573 (0%)	7mo	$261,990	$167	88
40742 Barley Straw Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+0%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	80
40826 Hawthorne Glades St	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	6mo	$252,990	$172	72
40842 Hawthorne Glades St	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	6mo	$252,990	$172	71
41018 Riverside Meadows Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+3%)	3mo	$329,990	$204	71
40835 Hawthorne Glades St	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	6mo	$253,990	$173	71
40974 Seasoned Oak Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	6mo	$251,490	$171	68
40739 Barley Straw Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+11%)	3mo	$292,490	$167	66
40418 Winding Way Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+2%)	5mo	$350,000	$218	58
15214 Black Scoter Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (+3%)	6mo	$299,900	$186	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $138,880
• Equity at exit: $248,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $401,773
• Equity at exit: $535,869

Cash invested: $77,231 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,137/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $264,150

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $15	+0% $-81	+5% $-176	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-175	+0% $-81	+5% $14	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-11	base $-81	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,956
• Closing costs: $8,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	44d	1	0.15mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	44d	1	0.26mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.79mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	2d	40	1.01mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	1.19mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	1.21mi
21619 Bluebonnet Bay Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1911	$2,625	$1.37	2d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscaping

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $274,990 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $274,990 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $279,990 740-char remark
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $287,490 Active 740-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,451
• − Property taxes: −$4,137
• − Insurance: −$1,379
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,024
• Taxable loss: −$5,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,356
• After-tax cash flow: $388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern, move-in-ready home in Magnolia, TX, features a spacious open concept layout, a well-maintained exterior, and a smart home system, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home System — Enhances home's appeal and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home System — Enhances home's appeal and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $287,490 HARMLS