18807 Timbers Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$290,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,541 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1996 6,507 sqft lot $114/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · at est. $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The perfect place to call home! This spacious 4-bedroom residence offers a functional and inviting layout designed for comfortable living. Enjoy tile flooring in all wet areas and rich wood flooring throughout the living spaces and game room, complemented by ceiling fans for added comfort. Upon entry, you're welcomed by bright and airy formal living and dining areas filled with natural light. The kitchen is a standout feature, complete with granite countertops, tile backsplash, breakfast bar, and breakfast room, plus stainless steel appliances. Upstairs, you'll find all bedrooms along with a versatile game room, providing a great separation of space. The generously sized primary suite and w

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Formal living areas
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• WOOD FLOORING
• CEILING FANS
• FORMAL LIVING AREAS
• DINING AREAS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: CIA Services; Annual association fee of $525; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1996; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Fence (back yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor); Bedroom (Second floor); Bedroom (Second floor); Bedroom (Second floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central electric air conditioning; Thermostat (programmable)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Separate shower; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Forest El (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 67% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,817 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,376
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: 1.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5531 Flax Bourton St	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,318 (-9%)	1mo	$285,000	$123	81
5726 Green Timbers Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,592 (+2%)	1mo	$249,999	$96	76
18603 Timber Twist Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,710 (+7%)	3mo	$289,900	$107	75
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-8%)	2mo	$279,900	$119	64
5502 Moosewood Ct	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,531 (-0%)	3mo	$315,000	$124	62
19510 Alinawood Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,604 (+2%)	3mo	$269,900	$104	62
19102 Milloak Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,490 (-2%)	2mo	$315,000	$127	61
19518 Alinawood Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,634 (+4%)	1mo	$265,000	$101	60
19315 Oak Station Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,629 (+4%)	6mo	$289,500	$110	59
5202 Flax Bourton St	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,205 (-13%)	1mo	$260,000	$118	58
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,276 (-10%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	56
19402 Kacey Lane Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,793 (+10%)	2mo	$318,550	$114	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-40,027
• Equity at exit: $70,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-53,350
• Equity at exit: $74,724

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,588 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$541 /mo · $6,496/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,819

Max offer price $257,817

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-100	+0% $-182	+5% $-264	+10% $-346
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-284	+0% $-182	+5% $-80	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-108	base $-182	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.32mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	44d	1	0.58mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	44d	1	0.62mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	0.76mi
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,851	$0.87	6d	1	0.85mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	0.89mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	0.93mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	0.96mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	44d	1	0.99mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,336	$1.08	6d	1	1.16mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	6d	1	1.23mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,236	$0.96	4d	1	1.24mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $290,000 Active 1003-char remark
16. 2024-03-05
    historical $2,300
17. 2024-03-01
    historical $2,300
18. 2024-02-03
    listed $2,300
19. 2024-01-24
    listed $2,300
20. 2022-06-04
    price $2,200
21. 2015-04-22
    soldstatus
22. 1996-05-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,496 · $541/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,496 · $541/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$6,496
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,485
• − Management: −$2,485
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$7,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,695
• After-tax cash flow: $-491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13081.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Rental Removed $2,300 RENT.
• 2024-03-01 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-02-03 Listed for Rent $2,300 RENT.
• 2024-01-24 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2022-06-04 Price Changed $2,200 RENT.
• 2015-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,496 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.