51 W Carver Dr · Warrington, FL 32507

$159,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1943 7,405 sqft lot $234/sqft · 11% above area Est $143k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled 2 bedroom and 1 bathroom cottage in Carver Heights subdivision. The space has an open layout and stylish finishes. Insurance should be a breeze with all of these updates! New HVAC (2025), water heater (2025), roof replaced (2021). This home has new paint (inside and out), new LVP flooring, new kitchen cabinets/countertops, new light fixtures/ceiling fans and new double pane windows throughout. Outside, you'll find a spacious backyard with shady Live Oak canopy. This would make a great home or short term rental property. Just minutes from downtown, shopping, hospitals, NAS, Pensacola Beach and Perdido Key. Schedule your showing today! A 3-D virtual tour is available for this property.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• New hvac
• New water heater

Tags

• REMODELED COTTAGE
• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $160k implies a 651% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.44%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,444
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 11.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,950
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $34,796
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-01-02
    listed $159,900 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled 2 bedroom and 1 bathroom cottage in Carver Heights subdivision. The space has an open layout and stylish finishes. Insurance should be a breeze with all of these updates! New HVAC (2025), water heater (2025), roof replaced (2021). This home has new paint (inside and out), new LVP flooring, new kitchen cabinets/countertops, new light fixtures/ceiling fans and new double pane windows throughout. Outside, you'll find a spacious backyard with shady Live Oak canopy. This would make a great home or short term rental property. Just minutes from downtown, shopping, hospitals, NAS, Pensacola Beach and Perdido Key. Schedule your showing today! A 3-D virtual tour is available for this property.

16. 1983-06-01
    soldstatus $21,300
17. 1976-01-01
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $4,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$981
• After-tax cash flow: $5,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2032.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $159,900 PARMLS
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,300 Public Records
• 1976-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,127 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.