10559 Bay Hills Cir · Thonotosassa, FL 33592

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1987 4,101 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

Key facts

• Quiet area
• 4,101 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN FOOTPRINT
• QUIET AREA
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO TAMPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#673 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.90%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $37,614
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $100,438
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33592

• Home prices YoY: -7.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,555/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,073

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $868	-5% $842	+0% $817	+5% $791	+10% $766
Rent	-10% $650	-5% $734	+0% $817	+5% $900	+10% $983
Rate	-1.0pp $862	-0.5pp $840	base $817	+0.5pp $794	+1.0pp $770

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10605 Magnolia Dr Thonotosassa, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,500	$1.72	25d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $90,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $100,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

18. 2026-05-13
    price $105,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

19. 2026-05-11
    status Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

20. 2026-05-11
    price $110,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

21. 2026-02-03
    status Pending 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

22. 2026-01-30
    price $105,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

23. 2026-01-30
    price $99,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

24. 2026-01-28
    listed $105,000 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Investor & Handyman Special in Thonotosassa! Located at 10559 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout with ample living space, a large kitchen footprint, and generously sized bedrooms. With cosmetic work needed, this property is ideal for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants wanting to customize their home to their taste. Situated in a quiet area of Thonotosassa, the property offers convenient access to Tampa, major highways, shopping, and dining while still providing a peaceful, suburban feel.

25. 2025-02-13
    status Pending
26. 2025-02-12
    historical
27. 2025-01-26
    listed $90,000 Active
28. 2021-07-14
    soldstatus $113,000
29. 2021-07-12
    soldstatus $113,000 Closed
30. 2021-04-24
    status Pending
31. 2021-03-30
    status Active
32. 2021-02-26
    status Pending
33. 2021-02-03
    price $105,000
34. 2021-01-07
    price $110,000
35. 2020-11-11
    listed $115,000 Active
36. 2017-10-10
    soldstatus $20,000
37. 1993-08-24
    soldstatus $47,000
38. 1986-03-01
    soldstatus $59,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,555 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,555 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,555
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $9,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,177
• After-tax cash flow: $7,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Thonotosassa

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #13914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thonotosassa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 12,333
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,333
• Household income: $68,802
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 306.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.90%
• Current HPI: 364.3745
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+68.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-26 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-12 Sold (MLS) $113,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-03 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-07 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-11 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,555 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.