20 Antigua · River Park, FL 34952

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Est $65k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is 2 Bedroom, 1 1/2 Baths home features a large living room, beautiful kitchen, dinning room, Large Florida room, Storage shed and more. This beautiful and comfortable home is located in the prestigious Spanish Lakes One. This park has a courses that you can enjoy . Plenty amenities like two pools, steam room, jacuzzi, big auditorium, Club house access to play room, quite library, shuffle, bocce, tennis court, close to shopping, close to the beach, restaurants, medical facilities, civic center and more. .. I invite you to come and see this beautiful home, it won't last long. Must be approved by Spanish Lakes before closing on home

Key facts

• Tennis
• Golf
• Pickleball

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PARTIAL VIEWS
• LARGE SCREENED LANAI
• GOLF
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $908 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 6.3% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $80k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.66%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,692
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Huarte Way	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-1%)	3mo	$45,000	$38	73
7 Reforma Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-4%)	20mo	$37,000	$32	66
23 San Pablo Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+0%)	13mo	$37,000	$31	63
8636 Florence Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	2mo	$130,000	$103	61
5 Yolanda Ln	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+7%)	5mo	$39,000	$30	60
23 Oro Grande Way	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-9%)	6mo	$45,000	$41	58
25 Rio Verde Way	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+0%)	22mo	$64,900	$54	55
560 Natalie Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	18mo	$162,800	$130	54
501 La Buona Vita Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,289 (+8%)	9mo	$132,000	$102	54
82 Spanish Way	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,245 (+4%)	22mo	$18,000	$14	46
8591 Mary Ann Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	7mo	$75,000	$55	45
541 Natalie Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-14%)	22mo	$85,000	$82	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $42,931
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $104,010
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $908

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $964	-5% $936	+0% $908	+5% $881	+10% $853
Rent	-10% $762	-5% $835	+0% $908	+5% $981	+10% $1,055
Rate	-1.0pp $949	-0.5pp $929	base $908	+0.5pp $888	+1.0pp $867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	0.65mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,878	$1.84	14d	16	1.01mi
124 E Arbor Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$2,550	$2.65	14d	1	1.11mi
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	24d	1	1.17mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	24d	1	1.25mi
14 Lake Vista Trl #101 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,200	$1.88	24d	1	1.28mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	1.33mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	24d	1	1.34mi
26 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,500	$1.28	24d	1	1.37mi
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.40mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	14d	7	1.42mi
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.42mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	21d	1	1.42mi
326 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1030	$2,250	$2.18	24d	1	1.43mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	1.45mi
2 Lake Vista Trl #107 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	24d	1	1.47mi
1 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,800	$1.54	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 667-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $80,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $10,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,457
• After-tax cash flow: $8,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $80,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2024-08-12 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-07-22 Price Changed $69,900 Beaches MLS
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $69,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-06-20 Listed $74,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-11-07 Sold (MLS) $36,000 MCRTC
• 2022-10-06 Pending — MCRTC
• 2022-07-14 Listed $39,000 MCRTC
• 2011-02-10 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2010-12-18 Listed $10,000 Beaches MLS