408 Pimmit Hill Run · Conroe, TX 77316

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2005 7,501 sqft lot Est $209k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Home offers - 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, being a split floorplan. Spacious Living Room with Fireplace with Mantle. Nice Kitchen with a Bay Window, Ample Custom Cabinets for Storage, Granite Countertops - with a Pantry and Breakfast Area in the Kitchen. Tile flooring throughout. Features Entry Closet, Built-in Cabinet with Open Shelves and Cabinets for extra storage below. All located on a Cul-De-Sac across from Lake Conroe and all kinds of shopping, restaurants, medical and doctor offices all close by and Montgomery ISD.

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Bay window
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• BAY WINDOW
• AMPLE CUSTOM CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: DTA Community Management; Association fee $125 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 2005
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14x12); Bedroom on the first floor (11x10); Bedroom on the first floor (10x10)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity; Pantry; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.80%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Pimmit Hill Run	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$154	100
517 Chickasaw Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+0%)	2mo	$229,900	$177	79
1006 Franconia Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+10%)	4mo	$225,000	$158	74
127 Golfview Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-4%)	2mo	$189,900	$153	70
1206 Freedonia St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-8%)	5mo	$214,900	$181	69
237 Mesa Vw	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+1%)	2mo	$210,000	$161	66
705 Little River Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,365 (+5%)	4mo	$199,900	$146	66
508 Navajo Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (+9%)	1mo	$234,990	$167	53
1014 Platte River Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+11%)	3mo	$164,000	$114	52
1372 & 1378 Apache Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-2%)	8mo	$260,000	$206	50
119 Delaware Dr	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,350 (+4%)	5mo	$189,500	$140	49
249 Mesa Vw	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+10%)	7mo	$325,000	$228	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,702
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,905
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,760/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,948

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	0.26mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	2d	1	0.80mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	44d	1	0.90mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	21d	1	1.09mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	44d	1	1.17mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	1.17mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	1.29mi
28752 Aloha Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,986	$1.13	24d	1	1.33mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	44d	1	1.34mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	1.36mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,702	$1.84	2d	20	1.37mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	44d	1	1.37mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	1.39mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	1.41mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	1.43mi
4777 Holly Ln W Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,450	$0.85	18d	1	1.46mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2004-11-30
   soldstatus
4. 2004-08-03
   soldstatus
5. 1998-02-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,760 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,760 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,760
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$98
• After-tax cash flow: $2,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2004-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,760 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.