206 W Caribbean · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$39,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured · 323 Days on market

Built 1980 $865/mo HOA · 44% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large Home backs onto the preserve Excellent condition

Key facts

• Excellent condition
• Parking
• Community pool

Tags

• BACKS ONTO THE PRESERVE
• EXCELLENT CONDITION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Taxes reported (annual tax information available)
• Financial info: Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible); Is a senior community
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, golf course, laundry, and pool; Monthly association fee (payments required)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces total; Attached carport (1 covered/carport space); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V electric service; Sewer and water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Resale property; Faces east; Living area approximately 1,350 sq. ft.
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Owner-provided building area measurement; Building area total 1,570 (source: owner)
• Exterior features: Outbuilding / shed for storage; Aluminum skirt

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Blinds

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 56% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.43%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
192 W Caribbean	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+5%)	6mo	$49,000	$35	85
188 W West Caribbean W	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	17mo	$106,000	$76	77
110 W Caribbean	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+5%)	5mo	$77,500	$55	71
8164 Buckthorn Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,338 (-1%)	18mo	$83,000	$62	69
166 W West Caribbean	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,450 (+7%)	14mo	$38,000	$26	68
2948 Fiddlewood Cir	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	1mo	$122,000	$95	67
7 Giralda	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	4mo	$21,000	$18	63
3033 Satinleaf Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	55
8526 Lidflower Ct	0.57mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,404 (+4%)	6mo	$70,900	$50	54
7 Oliva Rd	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,350 (0%)	18mo	$90,000	$67	53
8483 Labelia Ct	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	15mo	$265,000	$182	41
8522 Leadtree Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,550 (+15%)	15mo	$245,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $19,032
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $44,995
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$865
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,436

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	13d	15	0.31mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	0.49mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	13d	7	0.54mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	13d	6	0.70mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	13d	1	0.93mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	23d	1	0.93mi
2082 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	23d	1	0.96mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	13d	1	0.98mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	23d	1	1.02mi
2183 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	13d	1	1.06mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	13d	1	1.06mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	23d	1	1.07mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.10mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	23d	1	1.22mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	13d	1	1.23mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	13d	1	1.24mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir Unit M-103 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.33mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	13d	7	1.35mi
1350 SE La Haven Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1041	$2,100	$2.02	23d	1	1.43mi
1456 SE Rivergreen Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,825	$1.98	13d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $865 · $10,380/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 54-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on marketlisting id $39,000 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $25,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $25,000 Active
19. 2025-08-03
    price $39,000 54-char remark

    Show marketing remark (54 chars)

    Large Home backs onto the preserve Excellent condition

20. 2025-08-03
    price $45,000 54-char remark

    Show marketing remark (54 chars)

    Large Home backs onto the preserve Excellent condition

21. 2025-07-30
    listed $48,000 Active 54-char remark

    Show marketing remark (54 chars)

    Large Home backs onto the preserve Excellent condition

22. 2023-12-01
    historical
23. 2023-08-26
    historical
24. 2023-08-18
    listed $79,000 Active
25. 2023-07-19
    status Active
26. 2023-07-13
    historical
27. 2023-04-20
    listed $85,000 Active
28. 2016-11-23
    historical
29. 2016-11-19
    listed $12,000 Active
30. 2004-05-10
    historical
31. 2004-05-10
    listed $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − HOA: −$10,380
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $5,388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $3,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $25,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $39,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $45,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $48,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-12-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2023-08-26 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $79,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-07-19 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2023-07-13 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $85,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-11-23 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2016-11-19 Listed $12,000 Beaches MLS
• 2004-05-10 Listed $28,500 Beaches MLS
• 2004-05-10 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS