3816 Locust Ln · Progress, PA 17109

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1942 10,454 sqft lot $113/sqft · 16% below area Est $207k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

2-Unit Income Property In Susquehanna. Includes 3 Garage Storage Rentals For Significant Additional Revenue. Property Management In Place, HUGE Upside Potential.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $317/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.3% in Progress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#385 in PA, #3,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Susquehanna Township SD (suburban): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #444 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,879/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1266% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $240k implies a 287% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.31%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,767
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 16.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $8,493
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $89,723
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17109

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,393/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,078

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $769	-5% $701	+0% $633	+5% $565	+10% $497
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $519	+0% $633	+5% $747	+10% $861
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $694	base $633	+0.5pp $571	+1.0pp $508

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,880
Total (2 units)			$2,879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3943 Concord St Harrisburg, PA	2.0	2.0	2542	$1,795	$0.71	45d	1	0.18mi
301 N Progress Ave Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1203	$1,466	$1.22	15d	4	0.47mi
821 Sequoia Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1200	$1,598	$1.33	15d	42	1.12mi
3133 Park Rd Harrisburg, PA	3.0	4.0	2902	$2,795	$0.96	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $240,000 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   2-Unit Income Property In Susquehanna. Includes 3 Garage Storage Rentals For Significant Additional Revenue. Property Management In Place, HUGE Upside Potential.

2. 2026-03-18
   listed $250,000 Active 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   2-Unit Income Property In Susquehanna. Includes 3 Garage Storage Rentals For Significant Additional Revenue. Property Management In Place, HUGE Upside Potential.

3. 2026-03-14
   historical $250,000 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   2-Unit Income Property In Susquehanna. Includes 3 Garage Storage Rentals For Significant Additional Revenue. Property Management In Place, HUGE Upside Potential.

4. 1987-11-04
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,592 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,393
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,764
• − Management: −$2,764
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable income: $4,002
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$961
• After-tax cash flow: $6,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susquehanna Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4223010
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,794
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #444 of 539 in PA

Livability — Progress

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #3436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,466
• Household income: $71,833
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1266.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · India, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.02%
• Current HPI: 253.77
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+287.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-14 Coming Soon $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,393 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.