309 S Mill St · Aberdeen, WA 98520

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1925 6,000 sqft lot Est $210k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2 bedroom home has plenty of space. A partially finished basement awaits your finishing touches. Many wood accents throughout the home give a warm and homey feeling, from kitchen cabinetry to an accent wall and finishing up with flooring in the basement. Located in South Aberdeen and out of the flood zone. House needs TLC, bring your tool belt and vision. Minutes away from Downtown!

Key facts

• Wood accents
• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• WOOD ACCENTS
• OUT OF THE FLOOD ZONE
• MINUTES AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; RV parking; Covered 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (City of Aberdeen); Sewer connected (City of Aberdeen); Power provided by Grays Harbor PUD
• Home design: Single family residence; One level with basement (built on lot); Upper (2nd floor) entry
• Construction: Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Composition (shingle) roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Structure type: House; Property condition: Fair
• Exterior features: Deck; RV parking; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (without eating space) on the upper/second level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the upper/second level); Primary bedroom on the upper/second level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the upper/second level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the upper/second level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-119/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#73 in WA, #1,320 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, employment F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 257 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,640 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
907 W Stockwell St	0.18mi	2/1.0	864 (-3%)	10mo	$170,000	$197	78
603 W King St	0.39mi	2/1.0	896 (+1%)	13mo	$255,000	$285	69
311 W Marion St	0.50mi	2/1.0	923 (+4%)	7mo	$110,000	$119	64
312 W Lovett St	0.60mi	2/1.0	892 (+0%)	10mo	$175,000	$196	63
927 W Marion St	0.14mi	2/1.0	768 (-14%)	13mo	$179,000	$233	60
218 W Cushing St	0.54mi	2/1.0	875 (-2%)	20mo	$290,000	$331	56
1111 W Perry St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	15mo	$282,000	$280	55
1021 W Stockwell St	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,004 (+13%)	21mo	$237,000	$236	52
708 Water St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	23mo	$250,000	$248	41
722 Waters St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	23mo	$220,000	$218	40
213 W King St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	792 (-11%)	14mo	$259,000	$327	37
1417 Ralph Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	15mo	$200,000	$198	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-24,665
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,313
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,203/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $158,253

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $35	+0% $-10	+5% $-55	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-64	+0% $-10	+5% $44	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $31	base $-10	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 W Huntley St Unit 3 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	44d	1	0.57mi
100 W Curtis St Aberdeen, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	44d	1	0.71mi
1731 S Boone St Unit 303 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	44d	1	0.87mi
109 S Park St Apt 1 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,375	$1.72	45d	1	1.01mi
109 S Park St Apt 2 Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	44d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on marketlisting id $160,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 394-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $190,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,203 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,203 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,203
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$683
• After-tax cash flow: $565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1320

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 24,888
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+280.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $190,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-21 Sold (MLS) $244,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Listed $224,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-15 Sold (MLS) $143,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-08 Listed $129,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2004-12-17 Sold (MLS) $48,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-24 Listed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,203 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.