500 Umstead Dr Unit A 304 · Chapel Hill, NC 27516

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · Condo · 81 Days on market

Built 1972 $281/mo HOA · 13% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS ONLY. Long term tenant, lovely family, Section 8, $1050 paid direct deposit on the 1st. Bedroom windows replaced, a wall removed in kitchen to create more space with some new cabinets, new Counters, Sink/Faucet & top quality thick laminate Floor. Hot water heater--6 mos old. Easy to own--tenant rarely requests anything, appreciates whatever you may do for her. Laundry located at the clubhouse.

Key facts

• Umstead park
• Fresh paint
• Minutes to downtown

Tags

• MOVE IN CONDITION
• FRESH PAINT
• MINUTES TO DOWNTOWN
• SCHOOLS IN CHAPEL HILL
• UMSTEAD PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit number A 304; Living area approximately 1,210
• HOA & community: Association (Real Estate Associates); Monthly association fee; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, trails; Association fee covers insurance and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking in a parking lot; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Site-built property; One-level layout
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Architectural shingle roof; No listed foundation details
• Exterior features: Playground (community); Public maintained road access; Upper-level unit with parking-facing entry (Unit A 304)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Oven; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Ceiling fan(s); Living/dining room combination
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in Chapel Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in NC, #742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (urban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #24 of 178 in NC (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carrboro High (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #164 of 535 statewide, top 32%, 870 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $180k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.75%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,906
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,585
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27516

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$281
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Umstead Dr Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.5–2.0	923	$1,315	$1.42	14d	2	0.04mi
306 Estes Dr Carrboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	655	$1,185	$1.81	14d	73	0.34mi
223 Jay St Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,349	$1.58	23d	1	0.34mi
234 Jay St Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	14d	1	0.37mi
706 Sykes St Unit A Chapel Hill, NC	4.0	2.0	1350	$2,400	$1.78	23d	1	0.49mi
714 Bradley Rd Unit A Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	23d	1	0.53mi
106 Pleasant Dr Unit A Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.0	904	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.61mi
1104 N Greensboro St Carrboro, NC	3.0	1.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	23d	1	0.69mi
111 Barclay Rd Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.0	1138	$1,850	$1.63	14d	1	0.70mi
1104 N Greensboro St Unit 15 Carrboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,700	$1.58	14d	1	0.70mi
505 N Greensboro St Unit A Carrboro, NC	4.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	23d	1	0.74mi
206 N Graham St Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	2.0	1297	$2,700	$2.08	23d	1	0.85mi
108 Lindsay St Unit A Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	23d	1	0.94mi
1000 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1221	$4,595	$3.76	14d	268	0.99mi
605 W Main St #301 Carrboro, NC	2.0	2.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	23d	1	1.07mi
118 Bim St Carrboro, NC	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,095	$2.10	14d	8	1.18mi
125a Wild Iris Ln Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,800	$1.76	23d	1	1.27mi
110 Piney Mountain Rd Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,514	$1.84	14d	17	1.30mi
220 Elizabeth St Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	2.5	1175	$1,698	$1.44	14d	5	1.35mi
121 Westview Dr #38 Carrboro, NC	2.0	1.0	844	$1,300	$1.54	23d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $281 · $3,372/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    status Active
18. 2026-03-17
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-06
    listed $189,900 Active
20. 2017-02-27
    soldstatus $88,000 Closed 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    INVESTORS ONLY. Long term tenant, lovely family, Section 8, $1050 paid direct deposit on the 1st. Bedroom windows replaced, a wall removed in kitchen to create more space with some new cabinets, new Counters, Sink/Faucet & top quality thick laminate Floor. Hot water heater--6 mos old. Easy to own--tenant rarely requests anything, appreciates whatever you may do for her. Laundry located at the clubhouse.

21. 2017-02-27
    soldstatus $88,000 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    INVESTORS ONLY. Long term tenant, lovely family, Section 8, $1050 paid direct deposit on the 1st. Bedroom windows replaced, a wall removed in kitchen to create more space with some new cabinets, new Counters, Sink/Faucet & top quality thick laminate Floor. Hot water heater--6 mos old. Easy to own--tenant rarely requests anything, appreciates whatever you may do for her. Laundry located at the clubhouse.

22. 2017-02-21
    status Pending 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    INVESTORS ONLY. Long term tenant, lovely family, Section 8, $1050 paid direct deposit on the 1st. Bedroom windows replaced, a wall removed in kitchen to create more space with some new cabinets, new Counters, Sink/Faucet & top quality thick laminate Floor. Hot water heater--6 mos old. Easy to own--tenant rarely requests anything, appreciates whatever you may do for her. Laundry located at the clubhouse.

23. 2017-02-20
    historical Contingent 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    INVESTORS ONLY. Long term tenant, lovely family, Section 8, $1050 paid direct deposit on the 1st. Bedroom windows replaced, a wall removed in kitchen to create more space with some new cabinets, new Counters, Sink/Faucet & top quality thick laminate Floor. Hot water heater--6 mos old. Easy to own--tenant rarely requests anything, appreciates whatever you may do for her. Laundry located at the clubhouse.

24. 2017-02-15
    listed $84,500 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    INVESTORS ONLY. Long term tenant, lovely family, Section 8, $1050 paid direct deposit on the 1st. Bedroom windows replaced, a wall removed in kitchen to create more space with some new cabinets, new Counters, Sink/Faucet & top quality thick laminate Floor. Hot water heater--6 mos old. Easy to own--tenant rarely requests anything, appreciates whatever you may do for her. Laundry located at the clubhouse.

25. 2017-02-14
    listed $84,500 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    INVESTORS ONLY. Long term tenant, lovely family, Section 8, $1050 paid direct deposit on the 1st. Bedroom windows replaced, a wall removed in kitchen to create more space with some new cabinets, new Counters, Sink/Faucet & top quality thick laminate Floor. Hot water heater--6 mos old. Easy to own--tenant rarely requests anything, appreciates whatever you may do for her. Laundry located at the clubhouse.

26. 2012-07-27
    historical
27. 2012-03-30
    listed $88,500
28. 2008-07-06
    soldstatus $78,500
29. 2008-07-01
    historical
30. 2007-07-01
    listed $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − HOA: −$3,372
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$198
• After-tax cash flow: $2,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700720
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,687
• Composite: 54.28/100
• National rank: #1370
• State rank: #24 of 178 in NC

Livability — Chapel Hill

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #742

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chapel Hill, NC
• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• City population: 62,515
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,358
• Household income: $106,353
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1783.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,781 people
• By 2030: 168,367 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 186,192 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 203,801 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 249,160 · +56.9%
• By 2100: 285,614 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.1) · D 74.9% · R 23.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.1 2020: D+51.1 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.82%
• Current HPI: 222.7543
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+124.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $189,900 TMLS
• 2017-02-27 Sold (MLS) $88,000 AMLSNC
• 2017-02-27 Sold (MLS) $88,000 TMLS
• 2017-02-21 Pending — TMLS
• 2017-02-20 Contingent — TMLS
• 2017-02-15 Listed $84,500 TMLS
• 2017-02-14 Listed $84,500 AMLSNC
• 2012-07-27 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2012-03-30 Listed $88,500 TMLS
• 2008-07-06 Sold (MLS) $78,500 TMLS
• 2008-07-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2007-07-01 Listed $84,500 TMLS