409 W Buffalo St · Caldwell, TX 77836

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,387 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1950 0.33 ac lot $83/sqft · 15% below area Est $233k · 15% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained, mid-century home on 1/3 acre lot near Downtown Caldwell! This 3 bed/2 bath home features a large kitchen with floor-to-ceiling cabinetry, 2 ovens, and a breakfast bar. Large family room with wood-burning fireplace, original built-in bookshelves & cabinets. Split bedroom layout with primary bedroom on opposite side of home with wood flooring & 2 closets. Primary bath includes vanity with make-up counter & additional storage cabinets. The 2 additional bedrooms have wood flooring and walk-in closets. The hall bath is equipped with a shower/tub combo & cabinet space. Bonus room addition off of family room that leads to the backyard. 1 vehicle attached garage. Large laundry room/sewing room with side door access. Huge backyard with a gentle slope & mature trees surrounding the home. Come take a look at this rare find in Caldwell, TX!

Key facts

• Mid-century home
• Large kitchen
• Split bedroom layout

Tags

• MID-CENTURY HOME
• LARGE KITCHEN
• FLOOR-TO-CEILING CABINETRY
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• ORIGINAL BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#497 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Caldwell ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #264 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,113 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.62%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,806
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -14.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 S Harvey St	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,034 (-15%)	9mo	$235,000	$116	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-42,838
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-50,650
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77836

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,529/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $169,334

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $199,000 Pending 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-02-06
   listed $225,000 Active 877-char remark

   Show marketing remark (877 chars)

   Well-maintained, mid-century home on 1/3 acre lot near Downtown Caldwell! This 3 bed/2 bath home features a large kitchen with floor-to-ceiling cabinetry, 2 ovens, and a breakfast bar. Large family room with wood-burning fireplace, original built-in bookshelves & cabinets. Split bedroom layout with primary bedroom on opposite side of home with wood flooring & 2 closets. Primary bath includes vanity with make-up counter & additional storage cabinets. The 2 additional bedrooms have wood flooring and walk-in closets. The hall bath is equipped with a shower/tub combo & cabinet space. Bonus room addition off of family room that leads to the backyard. 1 vehicle attached garage. Large laundry room/sewing room with side door access. Huge backyard with a gentle slope & mature trees surrounding the home. Come take a look at this rare find in Caldwell, TX!

7. 2026-02-03
   listed $225,000 Active 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   Well-maintained, mid-century home on 1/3 acre lot near Downtown Caldwell! This 3 bed/2 bath home features a large kitchen with floor-to-ceiling cabinetry, 2 ovens, and a breakfast bar. Large family room with wood-burning fireplace, original built-in bookshelves & cabinets. Split bedroom layout with primary bedroom on opposite side of home with wood flooring & 2 closets. Primary bath includes vanity with make-up counter & additional storage cabinets. The 2 additional bedrooms have wood flooring and walk-in closets. The hall bath is equipped with a shower/tub combo & cabinet space. Bonus room addition off of family room that leads to the backyard. 1 vehicle attached garage. Large laundry room/sewing room with side door access. Huge backyard with a gentle slope & mature trees surrounding the home. Come take a look at this rare find in Caldwell, TX!

8. 2026-02-02
   listed $225,000 Active
9. 2026-01-30
   historical
10. 2025-10-16
    price $232,000
11. 2025-10-16
    price $232,000
12. 2025-08-14
    price $249,500
13. 2025-08-07
    price $249,500
14. 2025-03-20
    listed $259,000 Active
15. 2025-03-17
    listed $259,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,529 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,529 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,529
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caldwell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812460
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,820
• Composite: 38.5/100
• National rank: #4181
• State rank: #264 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #497
• US rank: #9927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caldwell, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,469

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 10% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.96%
• Current HPI: 187.5385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $225,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $225,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $232,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $232,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $249,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $249,500 BCSRMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $259,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,529 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.