16 Pump House Rd · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$167,777

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1960 10,018 sqft lot $126/sqft · 55% below area $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is the kind of place people wait years to get into. Tucked within the * * Fourth Lake Community Association--limited to just 60 members-- * * this 3-bedroom seasonal home offers something that's getting harder and harder to find: a true lake community where people know each other, show up, and actually use what's around them. Life here revolves around the water. Mornings at the private beach with a lifeguard, afternoons kayaking or fishing, evenings playing volleyball or gathering at the community center. It's active, it's welcoming, and it feels like summer the way it's supposed to. The home itself keeps things simple--in the best way. It's a place to drop your bags, open the windo

Key facts

• Kayak racks
• Private beach
• New septic system

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• AMENITY-RICH COMMUNITY
• KAYAK RACKS
• SHARED WATERFRONT SPACE
• HUDSON RIVER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.23 acres
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $850; Association includes beach access and recreation facilities; Association fee covers structure maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One garage space; Five total parking spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built as single family home
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms
• Flooring: Slate; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Office on the first floor
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $168k).
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $168k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $167,777

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.25%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,668
• List price: $167,777
• Delta: -54.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
299 Scofield Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,365 (+3%)	6mo	$265,000	$194	81
83 Fenway Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,316 (-1%)	1mo	$403,000	$306	60
52 Lady Slipper Ln	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	6mo	$325,000	$271	54
29 Zermatt Dr	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-1%)	14mo	$325,000	$246	49
69 Fenway Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	14mo	$430,000	$307	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $179,333
• Equity at exit: $151,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.77×
• Total profit: $459,146
• Equity at exit: $325,954

Cash invested: $46,978 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$880
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,172/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $1,380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $167,777

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,475	-5% $1,427	+0% $1,380	+5% $1,332	+10% $1,285
Rent	-10% $1,122	-5% $1,251	+0% $1,380	+5% $1,509	+10% $1,638
Rate	-1.0pp $1,464	-0.5pp $1,423	base $1,380	+0.5pp $1,336	+1.0pp $1,292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,944
• Closing costs: $5,033
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1368-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   historical Contingent 1368-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   listed $167,777 Active 1368-char remark
4. 2025-09-30
   historical Contingent
5. 2025-09-30
   historical
6. 2025-08-18
   price $169,900
7. 2025-07-31
   price $179,900
8. 2025-04-15
   listed $199,900 Active
9. 2024-09-25
   status Pending
10. 2024-09-24
    historical
11. 2024-08-29
    price $199,900
12. 2024-08-19
    price $215,000
13. 2024-08-05
    listed $225,000 Active
14. 2019-03-01
    historical
15. 2019-03-01
    historical
16. 2019-03-01
    historical
17. 2019-03-01
    historical
18. 2018-06-15
    listed $85,000
19. 2017-06-15
    listed $85,000
20. 2013-08-21
    soldstatus $55,000
21. 2013-08-20
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 2012-12-05
    historical
23. 2012-04-05
    listed $64,900
24. 2012-04-05
    listed $61,900
25. 2009-09-24
    historical
26. 2009-08-17
    listed $135,000
27. 2009-08-17
    listed $133,000
28. 2006-12-20
    historical
29. 2006-06-20
    listed $150,000
30. 2005-11-22
    listed $163,000
31. 2003-01-14
    historical
32. 2002-07-14
    listed $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,172 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,504 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,398
• − Property taxes: −$2,172
• − Insurance: −$839
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,137
• − Management: −$3,137
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$4,881
• Taxable income: $14,798
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,551
• After-tax cash flow: $13,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Luzerne, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+71.2% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $167,777 Global MLS
• 2025-09-30 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $169,900 Global MLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $179,900 Global MLS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $199,900 Global MLS
• 2024-09-25 Pending — Global MLS
• 2024-09-24 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $199,900 Global MLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $215,000 Global MLS
• 2024-08-05 Listed $225,000 Global MLS
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2018-06-15 Listed $85,000 Global MLS
• 2017-06-15 Listed $85,000 Global MLS
• 2013-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-20 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Global MLS
• 2012-12-05 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2012-04-05 Listed $61,900 Global MLS
• 2012-04-05 Listed $64,900 Global MLS
• 2009-09-24 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2009-08-17 Listed $133,000 Global MLS
• 2009-08-17 Listed $135,000 Global MLS
• 2006-12-20 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2006-06-20 Listed $150,000 Global MLS
• 2005-11-22 Listed $163,000 Global MLS
• 2003-01-14 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2002-07-14 Listed $98,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,172 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.