3207 Sioux Trl · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1986 7,405 sqft lot $120/sqft · 12% above area Est $134k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an entry level home in a centrally located neighborhood. It's only minutes to all conveniences including restaurants, medical and shopping. This property has been priced for easier purchase. Make time to see the potential possible here once updating and repairs are made. The seller is selling as is. Perhaps a rehab loan or cash will be the best strategy for purchase. It does not qualify for FHA/VA financing. Call your broker for a viewing.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Scenic Heights subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage; Covered 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Block fencing

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Living room fireplace; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.76%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,538
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 12.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,583
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $19,598
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $962/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $419	+0% $376	+5% $334	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $311	+0% $376	+5% $441	+10% $507
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $414	base $376	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	25d	1	0.70mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	45d	1	0.80mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	4d	1	0.90mi
2116 N Scenic Dr Apt A1 Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	957	$950	$0.99	25d	1	0.99mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	45d	2	1.15mi
2360 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,600	$1.36	25d	1	1.25mi
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	25d	1	1.26mi
2200 1st St Alamogordo, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1011	$1,979	$1.96	4d	18	1.36mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	4d	1	1.36mi
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	25d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    status $149,900 Active 17 DOM

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    This is an entry level home in a centrally located neighborhood. It's only minutes to all conveniences including restaurants, medical and shopping. This property has been priced for easier purchase. Make time to see the potential possible here once updating and repairs are made. The seller is selling as is. Perhaps a rehab loan or cash will be the best strategy for purchase. It does not qualify for FHA/VA financing. Call your broker for a viewing.

11. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    This is an entry level home in a centrally located neighborhood. It's only minutes to all conveniences including restaurants, medical and shopping. This property has been priced for easier purchase. Make time to see the potential possible here once updating and repairs are made. The seller is selling as is. Perhaps a rehab loan or cash will be the best strategy for purchase. It does not qualify for FHA/VA financing. Call your broker for a viewing.

12. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    This is an entry level home in a centrally located neighborhood. It's only minutes to all conveniences including restaurants, medical and shopping. This property has been priced for easier purchase. Make time to see the potential possible here once updating and repairs are made. The seller is selling as is. Perhaps a rehab loan or cash will be the best strategy for purchase. It does not qualify for FHA/VA financing. Call your broker for a viewing.

13. 2026-04-30
    listed $149,900 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    This is an entry level home in a centrally located neighborhood. It's only minutes to all conveniences including restaurants, medical and shopping. This property has been priced for easier purchase. Make time to see the potential possible here once updating and repairs are made. The seller is selling as is. Perhaps a rehab loan or cash will be the best strategy for purchase. It does not qualify for FHA/VA financing. Call your broker for a viewing.

14. 2026-04-30
    listed $149,900 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    This is an entry level home in a centrally located neighborhood. It's only minutes to all conveniences including restaurants, medical and shopping. This property has been priced for easier purchase. Make time to see the potential possible here once updating and repairs are made. The seller is selling as is. Perhaps a rehab loan or cash will be the best strategy for purchase. It does not qualify for FHA/VA financing. Call your broker for a viewing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$237/yr (+$20/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥90°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$962
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $3,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2026-06-08 Relisted — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-18 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-18 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $149,900 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-30 Listed $149,900 OCAOR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $962 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.