9909 Glenbrook Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$299,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2022 4,795 sqft lot $121/sqft · at area comps Est $309k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning 2-story residence spans over 2,331 square feet and embodies both elegance and comfort. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by a spacious open-concept living area that seamlessly integrates with the gourmet kitchen, featuring sleek countertops and modern appliances—perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. This impressive home boasts four generous bedrooms offering serene retreats for everyone in the family. The expansive primary suite is a true sanctuary, complete with an en-suite bathroom featuring dual vanities and a luxurious soaking tub. With 2 full bathrooms plus an additional half bath on the main floor, convenience is at your fingertips. Venture outside to discover a beautifully covered back patio—ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation while overlooking your private backyard oasis. Parking and storage are plentiful with the attached 2-car garage providing ample space for vehicles and outdoor gear.

Key facts

• 4,795 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-934 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,567 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.34%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,706
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -2.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9910 Caddo Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	2,533 (+2%)	2mo	$525,000	$207	84
10023 Rose Mallow Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,593 (+4%)	7mo	$388,000	$150	71
10220 Badger Run Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,397 (-3%)	6mo	$316,845	$132	66
27318 Axis Deer Trl	0.53mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,470 (-0%)	0mo	$329,990	$134	65
27274 Axis Deer Trl	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,409 (-3%)	3mo	$352,495	$146	60
10253 Badger Run Ln	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,397 (-3%)	8mo	$320,985	$134	58
27290 Axis Deer Trl	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,470 (-0%)	8mo	$335,684	$136	57
27313 Dobbin Huffsmith Rd	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,381 (-4%)	7mo	$400,000	$168	56
27072 Badger Way	0.75mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,470 (-0%)	6mo	$307,370	$124	51
27386 Axis Deer Trl	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,173 (-12%)	10mo	$305,455	$141	46
10280 Badger Run Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,173 (-12%)	7mo	$305,510	$141	46
10017 Ocelot Ct	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,812 (+13%)	3mo	$325,000	$116	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $98,708
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $328,130
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$832 /mo · $9,978/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,281

Max offer price $199,567

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	2d	1	0.14mi
28618 Hidden Cove Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2430	$2,046	$0.84	12d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $299,900 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    This stunning 2-story residence spans over 2,331 square feet and embodies both elegance and comfort. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by a spacious open-concept living area that seamlessly integrates with the gourmet kitchen, featuring sleek countertops and modern appliances—perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. This impressive home boasts four generous bedrooms offering serene retreats for everyone in the family. The expansive primary suite is a true sanctuary, complete with an en-suite bathroom featuring dual vanities and a luxurious soaking tub. With 2 full bathrooms plus an additional half bath on the main floor, convenience is at your fingertips. Venture outside to discover a beautifully covered back patio—ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation while overlooking your private backyard oasis. Parking and storage are plentiful with the attached 2-car garage providing ample space for vehicles and outdoor gear.

15. 2026-04-10
    listed $314,900 Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    This stunning 2-story residence spans over 2,331 square feet and embodies both elegance and comfort. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by a spacious open-concept living area that seamlessly integrates with the gourmet kitchen, featuring sleek countertops and modern appliances—perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. This impressive home boasts four generous bedrooms offering serene retreats for everyone in the family. The expansive primary suite is a true sanctuary, complete with an en-suite bathroom featuring dual vanities and a luxurious soaking tub. With 2 full bathrooms plus an additional half bath on the main floor, convenience is at your fingertips. Venture outside to discover a beautifully covered back patio—ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation while overlooking your private backyard oasis. Parking and storage are plentiful with the attached 2-car garage providing ample space for vehicles and outdoor gear.

16. 2023-02-10
    historical
17. 2023-02-01
    listed $322,415 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,978 · $832/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,978 · $832/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$9,978
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$16,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $314,900 HARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-01 Listed $322,415 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,978 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.